877
FXUS64 KAMA 241824
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
124 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD IMPACT MEMORIAL DAY
ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
- TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
- AFTER TUESDAY, DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S WELCOMED RAIN AND STORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES, TODAY'S WEATHER IS SLATED TO BE MOSTLY
QUIET FOR THE AREA. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND A 10-20 MPH SOUTH BREEZE. DESPITE YESTERDAY'S
CONVECTION LARGELY OVERRUNNING THE ENVIRONMENT, SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN TANDEM WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME SMALL, SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS PRIMARILY HIGHLIGHT THE OKLAHOMA AND SW
TEXAS PANHANDLES AS THE AREAS TO WATCH FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT WHERE
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY IS BETTER FAVORED, BUT ONLY AMOUNTS TO ABOUT A
15-25% CHANCE OF OCCURRING.
MEMORIAL DAY BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, AS A LARGE 500MB TROUGH ROTATES AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD ATOP THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO LIFT OVER THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS OF NEW
MEXICO, IMPINGING UPON THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWA. THESE AREAS
SHOULD HAVE AN ABUNDANT SWATH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP, LENDING 30-60% PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TO OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE A
LOW CHANCE TO PRODUCE OVER 0.25" OF RAIN IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
BY MIDNIGHT. FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES HOWEVER, RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 20% AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LESS LIKELY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND A SOUTH BREEZE.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
ENSEMBLE AND PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS PROVIDE HOPE FOR CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TUESDAY IN
PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY FOR THE PANHANDLES,
AS RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WOULD SPELL OPTIMAL
CONDITIONS FOR ENHANCED MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
AVERAGES CURRENTLY PULL PWATS >1" ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MAY 26. IF A MORE PRONOUNCED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW IS
ABLE TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS NOW
DEPICT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (50-70%
CHANCES). THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS RATHER HIGH AT
THIS CONJECTURE, BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS FIGURING OUT JUST HOW
WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FORECAST, EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION
IS ACHIEVABLE EVEN WITHOUT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS EQUATES TO
ABOUT 20-50% PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL >0.50", AND EVEN ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS >1".
BEYOND TUESDAY, ODDS CONTINUE SHIFTING IN OUR FAVOR THAT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORM CHANCES
CLOSING OUT MAY AND ENTERING JUNE. EACH DAY THIS WEEK INTO NEXT HAS
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES, BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN EVERYDAY. REGARDLESS,
THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE AS WE TRANSITION INTO OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL WETTEST PART OF THE YEAR, DESPERATELY NEEDING TO MAKE
A DENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
SOUTH WINDS ALSO MEAN THAT FIRE WEATHER SHOULDN'T BE ANYWHERE NEAR
AS MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HARREL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES WITH WINDS PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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