686
FXUS64 KAMA 251750
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TUE AND
TUE NIGHT HAVING THE BEST CHANCES. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
PROGGED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE BRINING PWATS ABOVE 100 PERCENT TO NM AND INTO THE
WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES FOR TODAY. LATER
IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. LIFT WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALLOWING FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES. OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH MAY INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN FURTHER EAST
GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHER POPS AS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND PVA FROM THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE. THANKS TO THE LACK OF WINDS ALOFT SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK AND OVERALL CAPE WILL BE LIMITED. THEREFORE, NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE STORMS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE BEST SHOT
AT ANYTHING SEVERE WILL BE LATER TODAY WITH POTENTIAL INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS IN THE WEST. SO WILL NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE SEVERE WIND
GUST AT THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER, AND WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE, TUE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HELD BACK A BIT IN THE 70S TO THE WEST AND LOWER
80S TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WED, THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL
RIPPLES ALOFT COMING ACROSS. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S ONCE AGAIN. POPS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER, WED
CONTINUES WITH 20 TO 60 POPS, MAINLY FAVORING THE EAST TO
NORTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE FA SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILD BACK OVER LEADING TO WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S. MOISTURE ESPECIALLY AT H7 IS PROGGED TO STICK AROUND
LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THU AND FRI.
HOWEVER, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK AGAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
BE LACKING. PATTERN MAY CHANGE AGAIN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING THEREFORE POPS ARE
SCATTERED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH THE NBM GIVES 20 TO 40
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN, THE COVERAGE MAY STILL STAY SCARCE
UNTIL SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN
EACH DAY FRI NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT THERE IS AT LEAST A POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES TO SEE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. DO HAVE PROB30 FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDHT AND KAMA, AS THEY LOOK
TO BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL AROUND THOSE SITES. KAMA MAY HAVE A
BETTER SHOT AT THE 9-15Z TIME PERIOD AS THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
BETTER DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR. WINDS GENERALLY WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE FOR THE TAF
PERIOD.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...89
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