288
FXUS64 KAMA 252256
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
556 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO STATE LINE THIS EVENING. STORM MAY BE STRONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH TUE AND
TUE NIGHT HAVING THE BEST CHANCES AND THURSDAY HAVING THE LOWEST
CHANCES. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK CU FIELD SETTING UP IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH SET UP OVER SOUTHERN NV
CONTINUES TO DRAW UP MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING IS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS ARE
ALREADY POPPING IN THAT AREA, AND THAT MAY EXPAND TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OFF RIGHT AROUND THE
AMARILLO AREA. SHOULD A STORM OR TWO MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST
THE STORM MOTION WOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
DECENT PWAT'S AROUND AN INCH, AND THEREFORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
IS FAVORED. BUT OVERALL THE BEST CHANCES ARE RIGHT ALONG THE TX/NM
BORDER.
OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE SCALE LOW MOVES DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IT WILL NUDGE THAT MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER EAST, ALONG WITH BETTER
FORCING WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALL
DAY TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. STORMS SHOULD JUST BE GENERAL,
WHILE ML CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG, OVERALL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A VERY TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH PWAT'S IN THE 1.25"
RANGE. WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM WITH HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE,
BUT OVERALL DO EXPECT THAT DECENT MELTING SHOULD OCCUR KEEPING THE
HAIL IN CHECK. SAME WITH WINDS, WHILE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, WILL NOT RULE OUT WINDS UP TO 50-55 MPH AS A POSSIBILITY.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP FURTHER
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND CONTINUE TO SPIN UP ANOTHER WAVE OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL AGAIN SET OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS. IT DOES SEEM THAT THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PANHANDLES WILL BE BETTER FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT STILL
ABOUT A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THURSDAY THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER CA WILL BE ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE COMING IN OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THAT WILL SET UP A
BIT OF A BREAK FOR OUR AREA AS WE TRANSITION TO WEAK RIDGING.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING STORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAY ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN AS THE RIDGE GETS PINCHED OFF BY AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND A SOMEWHAT CUTOFF LOW THAT TRACKS OVER
THE PANHANDLES AND LINGERS. THIS WILL JUST CONTINUE THE DAILY
CHANGES OF GENERAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A
FAVORABLE PATTER TO CONTINUE TO HELP WITH THE DROUGHT.
WEBER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
DALHART, LATER TONIGHT FOR AMARILLO, AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL
TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 FOR ALL OF THESE INSTANCES OF
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THEM
OCCURRING (THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT), AND PRECISE TIMING (THIS
EVENING, TONIGHT, AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON). VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52
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