309
FXUS64 KAMA 260531
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1231 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORM MAY BE
STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
NEGATIVE H7 THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FREE THIS EARLY MORNING. AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. ACTIVITY
WILL FIRST START OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE,
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHEAR WILL BE LACKING. PVA IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF LIFT AND PWATS NEAR 100% TO 150% OF
NORMAL SHOULD CAUSE VERY SKINNY CAPE ACCORDING TO FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
CORES WITH SMALL HAIL BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LARGE HAIL. THE
MAIN SHOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE, WITH ISOLATED
AREAS SEEING RAIN RATES OF 0.05" TO 0.25" AN HOUR. THE HEAVIER
RAIN EXPECTED WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN RATES OVER 0.5" AN
HOUR BECOME MORE FEASIBLE PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES. THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BY WPC FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. JUST TO THE SOUTH IS A SLIGHT RISK. THIS SLIGHT RISK
STOPS SHORT OF REACHING DONLEY AND COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY. WHICH
MAKES SENSE WITH CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN TOTALS EXCEEDING
1" REMAIN THE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE.
TOMORROW, A MUCH MORE ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACNW WILL
DROP DOWN INTO CA/NV AND SEND SOME DISTURBANCE TOWARDS THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SET OFF SOME MORE
SCATTERED STORMS FOR WED. HOWEVER, THE BEST MOISTURE MAY BE
POSITIONED MORE OVER THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN
OK. CURRENT POPS REMAIN THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME. AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED
AND ANY AREAS THAT DO GET HIT WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT TODAY AN MCV MAY SET UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
FOR TOMORROW. THIS IS LIKELY WHY THE HIGHEST POPS TOMORROW ARE IN
THE NORTHEAST. WHO SEES THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE THIS MCV SETS UP AND WHERE IT TRAVELS TODAY INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. OVERALL THERE ARE CHANCES FOR AREAS TO RECEIVE AN INCH OF
RAIN OR MORE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH THE SCATTERED
NATURE THAT IS EXPECTED SOME LOCATIONS IN THE COMBINED PANHANDLES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST MAY NOT EVEN GET 0.25", AND THERE MAY
BE POCKETS WHERE ISOLATED AREAS DO NOT GET MUCH RAIN IF ANY,
0.0-0.1".
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
AFTER SEEING HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY AND TOMORROW, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S THU, AND
MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. H5 HEIGHT RISES SHOULD
HELP BRING TEMPERATURES UP AFTER THE CURRENT SYSTEM EXITS.
ALTHOUGH POPS DO DECREASE THU AND FRI, THEY DO NOT COMPLETELY GO
AWAY AS H7 THETA-E IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND. WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE STICKING AROUND ANY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE OR EVEN CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
NBM IS A BIT GENEROUS GIVING 20 TO 50 POPS ON THESE DAYS. HOWEVER,
20 TO MAYBE 30 MAY BE MORE REASONABLE THU AND FRI. NOT EVERYONE
IN THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE RAIN EVERY DAY THIS COMING WEEK. BUT
THE CHANCES ARE THERE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY BE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT, HOWEVER, MORE LARGE
SCALE COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE PRESENT UNTIL
SUN NIGHT. THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO GET STUCK IN A
VERY UNORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN MAJOR RIDGES AND
MAJOR TROUGHS. BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST CONTINUED
PERTURBATIONS IN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR POPS TO SPREAD
ALL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME NO
PARTICULAR DAY STANDS OUT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AS OF LATE TONIGHT LATEST RADAR WAS SEEING SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP JUST TO OUR WEST IN NEW MEXICO WITH A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW BEING SEEING THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES.
CURRENT CAMS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SEEING A NEW SYSTEM PUSH
ACROSS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WILL FORCE THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
PANHANDLES AND OVER THE TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY
KAMA HAS BOTH THE EARLIEST AND BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE BOTH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL STARTING AROUND SUNRISE.
THIS WILL BE THEN FOLLOW BY OUR TWO NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM FULLY PUSHES IN. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE CAMS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BE VERY SCATTERED IN
NATURE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LOT OF OFF AND ON ACTIVITY AT THE
TERMINALS. GIVEN THIS HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP MENTIONS OF IMPACTS AS
PROB30S FOR NOW.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...11
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