149
FXUS64 KAMA 262308
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
608 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SOME STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE THE
GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE STORMS, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LANDSPOUTS AS A SECONDARY CONCERN.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.
- CONTINUED ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS TO LOW TO MENTION BUT FRIDAY SHOWS SOME PROMISE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS POPPING IN THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHER PANHANDLE. OVERALL THE MOISTURE HAS HELD OFF TO THE SOUTH
EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT WE ARE GETTING THE BETTER LIFT MOVING OVER
OUR AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ADD THAT WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND WE DO ANTICIPATE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN FOCUS.
THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES AS PWAT'S ARE OVER
AN INCH FOR THE AREA. SOME SECONDARY CONCERNS THAT WE ARE SEEING IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LANDSPOUTS WITH THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE ENHANCED STRETCHING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS
PRETTY HIGH IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES, AND WHILE NOT GREAT, IS STILL
SOMEWHAT PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST. AND WE'VE ALREADY HAD MULTIPLE
CALLS AS WELL AS VERIFIED ON SOME OF OUR CAMERAS THAT A LANDSPOUT
OCCURRED IN DEAF SMITH COUNTY A COUPLE HOURS AGO. BUT WITH MULTIPLE
CELLS EXPECTED LATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL THE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS TO OCCUR, CERTAINLY WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER CHANCE FOR
LANDSPOUTS TODAY. WHILE INSTABILITY ISN'T THE BEST, THE DYNAMICS AND
LIFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH THAT WE COULD GET A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. 18Z SOUNDING AT KAMA SHOWS GOOD DRY AIR
ALOFT AND OUR LOWER LEVELS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN UP. THIS SETUP IS SUPPORTIVE OF A WET MICROBURST, WHICH HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED IN VIGO PARK TO THE SOUTH WITH A 77 MPH WIND GUSTS
AND OVER A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IN JUST 5 MINUTES. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES LATER THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT, SO MUCH THAT POPS WILL STAY UP IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE ALL NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT LINGERS FOR THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ML CAPE VALUES NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE IN THE NORTH
AS SOUNDINGS WILL BE FAIRLY MOIST, BUT THEY DO PICK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES, AND THERE IS A LITTLE IMPULSE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
LIFT DURING PEAK HEATING TO GET SOME STORMS TO POP UP. AND AT THIS
POINT THE SHEAR DOESN'T LOOK TOO GOOD, BUT ML CAPE VALUES COULD
RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND THAT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME HAIL
UP TO AN INCH.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THURSDAY MAY BE THE ONLY DAY WE GET THE BEST BREAK IN STORMS AS WE
REMAIN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT HAD
BEEN DRIVING THE WEATHER IN RECENT DAYS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
NV AREA BEFORE BEING KICKED OFF UP TO THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE WE ARE ON A POTENTIAL BREAK ON
THURSDAY, GIVEN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POP UP STORMS IS CERTAINLY STILL
IN THE CARDS. WITH THE SYSTEM READY TO KICK OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, THAT SETS UP ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING WITH THE NEGATIVE
TILT TROUGH SET UP ON FRIDAY. THAT COULD SET UP SOME BETTER SHEAR
DYNAMICS FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND, THERE'S A MIXED BAG OF SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST WE COULD
BE RETURNING TO A WARMER AN DRIER RIDGING PATTER, WHICH HAS BEEN IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK CUTOFF SYSTEM HAS
ALSO INDICATED THAT THE PANHANDLE COULD BE IN FOR A WEEKEND OF
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS IT JUST SITS OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES, DESPITE THE OVERALL UPPER .
RIDGE BEING OVER US AS WELL. SO CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. MONDAY DOES LOOK
LIKE A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE IN STORE.
WEBER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES NOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS ON AND OFF FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOW CEILINGS OF MVFR TO IFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN
AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DIRECTION AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM PASS THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKER, BARRING ANY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...98
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