520
FXUS64 KAMA 270541
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. SOME STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WOULD BE THE
GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE STORMS.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
- CONTINUED ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS TO LOW TO MENTION BUT FRIDAY SHOWS SOME PROMISE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY. THIS IS
BOTH BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
AND WRAPPING BACK MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES. ALL THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE LATENT INSTABILITY
OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO CAUSE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR MIST AND FOG TO FORM THIS MORNING. THIS IS QUESTIONABLE
AS THE UNSTABLE CONDITION THIS MORNING CAN PREVENT THE MIST OR FOG
FROM FORMING. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE GOING INTO THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SMALL IMPULSE WITHIN
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PANHANDLES AND FROM DAYTIME HEATING. THIS CAN
LEAD TO INSTABILITY THAT IS MOST LIKELY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF HIGHER VALUES. THERE WILL
BE SOME LIMITED SHEAR WHICH CAN ALLOW FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
SUCH CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL AND
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUCH STORMS
WOULD HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HAIL THAT CAN REACH UPWARDS
OF AN INCH. FURTHER HIGH MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
ALLOWING STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MELTING HAIL THAT DOES FORM SO IT COULD HEAVILY COUNTER
THE SIZE OF HAIL. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRESENT A LOW RISK FOR
FLOODING THAT WILL BE HIGHER IN EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS THE HIGHEST. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE IN
THE LATER EVENING AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST.
STILL, SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SMALL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BRING
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLES THAT WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE MOISTURE
OVER THE PANHANDLES WHICH COUPLED WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR FEW TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY COME TO AN END
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
FRIDAY THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED INSTABILITY
TO THE REGION THAT CAN SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGH IS FAVORING A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING ENHANCED DYNAMICS TO THE
PANHANDLES. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR STRONGER TO EVEN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SO THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THAT CAN CAUSE FLOODING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES TODAY. THIS
IS CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS ON AND OFF FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CEILINGS
OF MVFR TO IFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND SIGNIFICANTLY IN
DIRECTION AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM PASS THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKER, BARRING ANY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY FAVORING A TRANSITION TO A DIRTY RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD BRING A DOWN TICK IN THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL PRESENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS.
GOING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS AS THE
PATTERN BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. THE BROAD CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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