624
FXUS64 KAMA 121123
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- DAILY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
IS A CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- PRESENCE OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE PANHANDLES.
- POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
WITH TRIPLE DIGITS HIGHS RETURNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE QUICKER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT YESTERDAY HAS SEEN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STRUGGLE FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, MID TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO START
SHIFTING TO A MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE EXTRA MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE PANHANDLES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD WE GET ENOUGH LIFT OFF THE CAP ROCK OR
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, THEN IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE AN OVERNIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. STILL CAMS ARE NOT TOO ENTHUSED ON THE IDEA
GIVEN MOST OF OUR INSATIABILITY IS ELEVATED WITH GOOD POTENTIAL TO
SEE A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUILD IN BY SUNRISE. REGARDLESS THIS
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN PWATS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
RISING TO AROUND 1 TO 1.3 INCHES DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST YOU
ARE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO COME WITH A RISE IN
MLCAPE VALUES WITH SOME MODELS EVEN CAPPING OUT AT AROUND 3000 TO
4000 J/KG THAT EVENING. HOWEVER THERE IS A DECENT LACK OF WIND
SHEAR PRESENT THANKS TO THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SYSTEM PRESSURE
HOLDING OVER THE PANHANDLES, WHICH WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR STORMS TO
STAY TOO ORGANIZED FOR THE DAY. REGARDLESS CAMS ARE STILL
TRENDING FOR THE PANHANDLES GETTING AN OPPORTUNITY TO UTILIZE THIS
MOISTURE AND INSATIABILITY LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SHORT-WAVE
PASSES THROUGH OUR NORTH. IF THIS SHORT-WAVE CAN GENERATE ENOUGH
LIFT, THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL UPWARDS OF 2
INCHES AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE NOT UNLIKELY WITH
POTENTIAL TO LAST CLEAR INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY, MODELS DO SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, CURRENT TRENDS DO LOOK TO SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
COME IN WITH ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT BY THAT EVENING. ONCE AGAIN
MODELS ARE SEEING THIS AS MORE OF CAPE THAN A WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH WITH FOCUS MORE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
SATURDAY EVENING. STILL WITH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PRESENT
WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS PRODUCE HAIL UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES SO
LONG AS THEY CAN STAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHAT MAY BE AN BIGGER
CONCERN MAY BE OUR FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH PRESENT CAMS SEEING
PWAT VALUES IS SOME AREAS REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES. CURRENTLY WPC HAS
THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES UNDER A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY, MODEL AGREEMENT SEES THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
BEGIN TO BACK OFF AND RETREAT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR PANHANDLES TO FALL UNDER A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CLEAR INTO
NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS FLOW IN PLACE, MOST MODELS DO SEE US SET UP
TO SEE MULTIPLE SHORT-WAVE PASS THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE EACH DAY. FOR
SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR, ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO A LACK OF CAPE AND
STILL HIGH PWAT VALUES PRESENT. HOWEVER, THESE CHANCES DO START
FALL OFF STARTING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
TRIES TO BUILD BACK ALONGSIDE THE HEAT. AS FOR WEDNESDAY ITSELF,
CURRENT MODELS CONTINUE TO SEE IT AS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN. MORE CHANCES AT STORMS COULD FOLLOW AGAIN NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT TO
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT KAMA. THE CEILINGS
SHOULD LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH 00Z AT THE TERMINALS. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO OUT
OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT ALL SITES AND PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN KEPT GIVEN THAT POTENTIAL. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE
OVER THE TERMINALS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. THE WIND WILL DECREASE AFTER
ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS GO THROUGH BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05
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