441
FXUS64 KAMA 121827
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
127 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THAT CAN
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOS, AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.
- FURTHER DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
- PRESENCE OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE PANHANDLES FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.
- POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH
TRIPLE DIGITS HIGHS RETURNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY. TODAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS CAUSING MAINLY A
WEST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS IS LEADING TO AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THIS IS CAUSING THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPRESSION.
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITH VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20 TO 40 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS MEANS THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND IS FULLY CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT THESE STORMS NEED IS A TRIGGER TO GET
THEM STARTED IN THE FIRST PLACE AND THAT IS A BIT HARDER TO FIND.
FOR THE EARLIER TO MID AFTERNOON THE BIGGEST TRIGGER IS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING WESTWARD FROM OK PROPER. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING BUT IF IT DID IT
WOULD BE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IF IT DOES
MANAGE TO GET STORMS GOING THEN THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A PRIME
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME SUPERCELLS. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL
HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOS, AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN. HOWEVER THE CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING REMAINS VERY LOW AS THIS
TRIGGER MECHANISM IS WEAK. THE MORE LIKELY TRIGGER WILL COME LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF
A SMALL WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY FLAIR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES. THESE INITIALLY MAY
START OFF AS MORE INDIVIDUAL STORMS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCELLS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THEN THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A MESO CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM/SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLES. THIS PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS WITH LESSER THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOS. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY
COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT APPROACHES OK
PROPER. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR HIGH
BASES THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE SYSTEM. ALL THE
CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD CEASE BY THE MID MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE IS HIGH TODAY SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DOES
FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. SINCE THIS CAN OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FLOODING CAN BE HARDER TO SEE. SO BE SURE NOT TO DRIVE ACROSS ANY
FLOODED ROADS AS THE WATER CAN BE DEEP OR HAVE DESTROYED THE ROAD.
TRUCKS MAKE FOR VERY POOR BOATS.
SATURDAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S TO EVEN 100S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS HEAT
WILL BE COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BRING A HEAT
ILLNESS RISK TO OUR NORMAL HOT AREAS SUCH AS PALO DURO CANYON. THEN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ALONG THIS FRONT A TROUGH WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS SPARK
UP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE WOULD THEN MOST LIKELY FORM INTO A MESO CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM OR SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL THEN PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THIS LINE OF
STORMS WILL COMBINE WITH IT AND PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
TRANSITION IN STORM MOTION IS MOST FAVORABLE TO OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. NOW THIS IS A COMPLICATED SITUATION SO HOW EXACTLY IT
CAN PLAY OUT IS STILL IN FLUX AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT WITH FUTURE
FORECAST. REGARDLESS, THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF
20 TO 30 KT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THIS
ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND
COME TO AN END DURING THE LATER EVENING HOURS. A FURTHER ROUND OF
NOCTURNAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
FORMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO THE
AFTERNOON STORMS, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS
TIME WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS HAS A LOW CHANCE TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ANYWHERE IN THE
PANHANDLES. THIS THREAT CAN BE HIGHER WITH THE OVERNIGHT STORMS AS
THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOTION PROLONGING ANY
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL OVER AN AREA. SO ONCE AGAIN DO NOT DRIVE INTO
FLOOD WATERS AS CARS AND TRUCK DONT FLOAT BUT SINK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BY CAUSING A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME EVEN IF IT IS DIMINISHED
COMPARED TO LAST WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL
WEATHER SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND UTILIZE THAT
MOISTURE TO SPARK OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MEANS THAT
EACH DAY HAS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS CAN OCCUR THROUGH THE WHOLE OF THE DAY
INCLUDING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TIMING DEPENDING WHOLLY ON WHEN
THE SMALL WEATHER SYSTEM PASS THROUGH. COME WEDNESDAY THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES OFF WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL GREATLY DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN THE HEAT.
THIS WILL SEE THE HIGHS INCREASE BACK INTO THE 90S AND 100S. THE
HOTTEST SPOTS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH THAT HEAT ILLNESS CAN BE A THREAT.
THESE TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
THEN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND THERE IS ALREADY HINTS FOR THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BREAK DOWN WITH FURTHER WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING
IN THE PANHANDLES. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING FURTHER RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE PANHANDLES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
CURRENTLY THERE IS VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THAT WILL PERSIST
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THESE ARE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT KDHT AND KGUY WITH A LESSER CHANCE
FOR KAMA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOS,
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WILL LAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THEY CEASE. AFTER THERE PASSAGE
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS OR EVEN FOG TO LINGER MAINLY IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THESE LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNRISE OF SATURDAY. THE
CHANCES FOR THIS OCCURRING AT ANY TERMINAL IS LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY
WILL NOT BE REFLECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT TAFS. FURTHER RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR SATURDAY, BUT THIS OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT TAF TIME FRAME.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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