266
FXUS64 KAMA 130531
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1231 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- FURTHER DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
- PRESENCE OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
- POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS HIGHS RETURNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A GOOD BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT, MAY HAVE LEFT SOME RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POSITIVE H7 THETA-E ADVECTION COMING INTO
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY, ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE, SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ZONAL OVER THE AREA,
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AS A HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO SEND SOME RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND MAY HELP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY
WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR LIFT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES
EXIST BY NOON TODAY WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATIONS FOR BEST CHANCES
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BETTER THETA-E STAYS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. PALO DURO CANYON CURRENTLY HAVE A
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AT 105. EVEN TO
THE NORTH TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN WARM AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE HEAT ALONG WITH THE
MOISTURE PRESENT MAY LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF STORMS AND RECOVERY
FROM LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT SOME RELIEF, TEMPERATURE
WISE, FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY'S HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, WHICH IS QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PARTLY BE FROM CAA BUT ALSO FROM QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER
BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO NM THEN INTO THE PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WANE ON SUNDAY, THE REST
OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
INTO THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS BY WED. BOTH THE NBM AND GFS ARE GIVING
AMARILLO A HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND 104-105 FOR WED AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY BE OVER DONE AS THE H5 HEIGHTS ON GFS ARE AROUND 586DAM AS
TROUGHING EXIST JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FA THANKS TO A HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WED VERY CLOSELY FOR THIS
DANGEROUS HEAT THOUGH. WITH THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
HELPING TO BRING HIGHS BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE CAVEAT BEING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z.
LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE DEVELOP OF LOW
CLOUDS BY THE END OF THIS 06Z TAF PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
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