179
FXUS64 KAMA 131740
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- FURTHER DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.
- PRESENCE OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS.
- POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS HIGHS RETURNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A GOOD BIT OF STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT, MAY HAVE LEFT SOME RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POSITIVE H7 THETA-E ADVECTION COMING INTO
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY, ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE, SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ZONAL OVER THE AREA,
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO START DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AS A HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO SEND SOME RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND MAY HELP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HELP
SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY
WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR LIFT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES
EXIST BY NOON TODAY WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATIONS FOR BEST CHANCES
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BETTER THETA-E STAYS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. PALO DURO CANYON CURRENTLY HAVE A
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AT 105. EVEN TO
THE NORTH TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN WARM AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE HEAT ALONG WITH THE
MOISTURE PRESENT MAY LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS ONCE
AGAIN. BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF STORMS AND RECOVERY
FROM LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY.
THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL BRING ABOUT SOME RELIEF, TEMPERATURE
WISE, FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY'S HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, WHICH IS QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PARTLY BE FROM CAA BUT ALSO FROM QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER
BEHIND THE FRONT WELL INTO SUNDAY AS MONSOONAL LIKE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO NM THEN INTO THE PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR AS WIDESPREAD AS
THEY ARE IN THE CURRENT SHORT TERM, CHANCES DO EXIST FOR A NUMBER
OF DAYS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE H250 TROUGH BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH, BUT MOST MODELS STILL
SUGGEST WE REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A STEADY
RAMP UP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
THE FA WILL STILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR HIGHS ON THOSE DAYS.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
CLEAR SKIES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 100S FOR THE DAY.
AFTER THE EXTREME HEAT, THE CWA SHOULD BE SUBJECT TO TROUGHING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THESE FRONTS WILL HELP DROP HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 80S AND 90S. WHILE WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY, THE REST OF THE
DAYS THIS WEEK LOOK TO HOST SOME AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO
POPS WILL ALSO BE <40%, EXCEPT ON MONDAY, WHERE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. KAMA AND KDHT ARE WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. PROB30S STILL EXIST FOR
KGUY, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR IMPACTS IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR
THE TERMINAL.
TONIGHT, MVFR CEILING ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT KAMA AND KDHT AFTER
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IFR CEILINGS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE AT
THE KAMA TERMINAL LATER TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT RESIDING OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS
BEING THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER AT KAMA
AND KDHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEY'LL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON; BUT
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEY WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY.
WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT THEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE (>50 KTS) AND SPORADIC IF INFLUENCED
BY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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