779
FXUS64 KAMA 132344
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ARE HIGH.
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT... ISSUED AT 130
PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREPARES TO DESCEND SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
POSITIONED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO CLIMB WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTH, A LINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
MOVE ALONGSIDE IT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MESOSCALE:
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR FEATURES SHOW THAT THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN
SE COLORADO AND SW KANSAS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION. DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH 60S DEWPOINTS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. AS QUALITY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE ACROSS THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES, CAPE PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE. BASED OFF
OUR 18Z SOUNDING, 2,673 J/KG OF SBCAPE HAS BEEN MEASURED OVER
AMARILLO. OUR 18Z SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>8 C/KM, POOR EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 21 KTS, AND STRONG DCAPE UP TO
1200 J/KG. THIS REGIME IS BEST SUITED FOR FAST AND LARGE UPSCALE
GROWTH FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH POOR INDIVIDUAL SUSTAINABILITY.
HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD FRONT AS THEIR FORCING MECHANISM, STORMS
WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN OR REGENERATE UPDRAFTS AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS SETUP COUPLED
WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR VECTORS (25-30 KTS). AS THE DAY
TURNS TO NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AND HAVE LESS
EFFECTIVE LAYER CAPE TO WORK WITH. STILL, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY, OUR
MEASURED PWAT OF 1.13" THIS AFTERNOON IS INDICATIVE OF EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN AS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
THREATS:
HIGH DCAPE AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL ALLOW DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ROUGE GUSTS
POTENTIALLY BEING GREATER THAN 75 MPH. LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST WHERE SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE. ELSEWHERE, 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO SUPPORT HAIL STONES UP TO PING PONG BALL
SIZE (1.5"), BUT THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS WILL NEED TO BE TILTED IN
ORDER FOR MELTING TO BE MITIGATED. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
WITH ANY STRONG STORM AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
THAT ARE URBAN, OVERWORKED, OR LOW-LYING. TONIGHT, THE HAIL THREAT
DECREASED AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
TIMING & LOCATION:
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN IN THE NORTH, BUT THEIR SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL UPDRAFTS CAN BECOME MORE ROBUST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION IS WSW TO ENE, BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY END AS LATE AS
MIDNIGHT, BUT THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE 6 AM HOUR
ON SUNDAY.
RANGEL
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY MAY NOT ESCAPE THE 70S AREAWIDE. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH CHANCES
FOR SEVERE STORMS BEING VERY LOW UNLIKE TODAY.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR AS WIDESPREAD AS
THEY ARE IN THE CURRENT SHORT TERM, CHANCES DO EXIST FOR A NUMBER
OF DAYS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE H250 TROUGH BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH, BUT MOST MODELS STILL
SUGGEST WE REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A STEADY
RAMP UP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
THE FA WILL STILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR HIGHS ON THOSE DAYS.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
CLEAR SKIES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 100S FOR THE DAY.
AFTER THE EXTREME HEAT, THE CWA SHOULD BE SUBJECT TO TROUGHING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THESE FRONTS WILL HELP DROP HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 80S AND 90S. WHILE WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY, THE REST OF THE
DAYS THIS WEEK LOOK TO HOST SOME AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL COVERAGE APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO
POPS WILL ALSO BE <40%, EXCEPT ON MONDAY, WHERE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
COLD FRONT WILL HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. GUY AND DHT GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS WILL BE THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH AMA PEAK OCCURRING A LITTLE LATER INTO THE EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORTER
LIVED IN THE FAR NORTH THAN SOUTH NEAR AMA. A CHANCE FOR HIGH
BASED WEAKER SHOWER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN.
PRECIP CHANCES AND IMPACTS ON SUNDAY SEEM TO LOW TO PINPOINT FOR
TEMPOS IN TAFS OUTSIDE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...88
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