518
FXUS64 KAMA 140609
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
109 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT TIMES
THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT
AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL HEAT RETURNS BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
STRONG OUTFLOW FROM WESTERN STORMS THIS EVENING DIDN'T DO THE
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES ANY FAVORS WRT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, HOWEVER WE
ARE SEEING REDEVELOPMENT NEAR AMARILLO AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS
APPROACHING THE AREA. EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING
THE HRRR AND NAM MAINTAIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE THE COOLER
MORE STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT, SO WHILE POPS WILL
BE DECREASING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLES. MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 800 J/KG, SO
THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTING. WHILE
THE CAP DECREASES, SOME REMAINS PRESENT AS DOES H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN THIS, LOW POPS PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. WPC
MARGINAL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
3RD OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY AS SERIES OF S/WVS MAINTAIN
BROAD ERN US TROUGHING. DECENT DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A PRETTY GOOD CAP
WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT SOME MANAGE TO BREAK THIS W/ HELP OF THESE
DISTURBANCES AND SOME H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE WESTERN COUNTIES
ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED AND GIVEN ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR BUT MARGINAL
CAPE. POPS OF 10-40 PERCENT FAVORING THE WEST SEEMS REASONABLE
FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S THE
NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT,
WILL SEE A WARMUP ON TUESDAY CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT SEEMS TO BE MORE AS A RESULT
OF DOWNSLOPING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DRY AIR AS H5 RIDGING ISN'T
IMPRESSIVE. THE NEWLY ADDED WATER IN THE SOIL SHOULD MATTER WRT
MITIGATING MAX TEMPS, BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH. WIDESPREAD
100-105 TEMPS ARE FORECAST. WILL SEE IF THIS DECREASES AS MODELS
ADJUST GROUND MOISTURE, BUT IT WILL BE HOT EVEN IF THIS IS
CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW, THE NEXT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY AND END THE BRIEF HEAT WAVE AS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THU.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS
INDICATE THE MONSOON INFLUENCE RETURNS FROM THE WEST. H5 HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DESERT SW LEADING TO RIDGE ROLLER
DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR GENERATING STORMS
THAT TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE NE FOR POPS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IN DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. IT ALSO FAVORS INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW AND TIMING IS TOO UNPREDICTABLE TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE
TAFS AFTER TONIGHT, BUT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MAIN ON THE FLY
AS NEEDED. AMA HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STORM IMPACTS.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PORTIONS OF AREA AS
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF IFR
EXISTS, BUT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESTRICT TAFS. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR LEVELS SUNDAY MORNING.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM....MJG
AVIATION...MJG
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