354
FXUS64 KAMA 141813
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
113 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. TOMORROW, HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM IS FORECAST, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY AND TOMORROW. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PROBABILITIES
HOLD FOR WIDESPREAD 100S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES COUPLED WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH-END LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E VALUES
PREVAIL TODAY AND ALLOW THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISPERSE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS
WILL STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST BEFORE ULTIMATELY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
THIS MORNING WILL ALSO CEASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THAT IS
IF PRECIPITATION IS STILL MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AS WE HAVE NOT
RECEIVED ANY CONFIRMATION WITH METAR DATA. HIGHS TODAY STILL MAY
NOT ESCAPE THE 60S AND 70S DUE TO HOW LONG WE HAVE MITIGATED DAY
TIME HEATING. LATER THIS EVENING, CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER IN OUR AREA WILL LIKELY NOT BE
SEVERE. MOST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES DUE TO LINGERING SURFACE INHIBITION
IN OUR AREA. STILL, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO LIFT ABOVE THE CAP
TONIGHT, THEY WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
WORK WITH AND PERMIT ANOTHER SMALL ROUND OF CONVECTION FOR THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS HIGH OVER
THE CWA TONIGHT, CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
TOMORROW, 12Z GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NBM, HAVE RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLE DUE TO A
QUICKER EROSION OF CLOUD COVER FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
HIGHS PERHAPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 80S. MONDAY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AMONGST CAMS AS
SOME SUGGEST ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL MAKE IT, WHILE OTHERS
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. INVERTED VS AND HIGH LCLS FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO BE
PRESENT FOR STORMS THAN REMAIN MORE ISOLATED WITH ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, WHILE THE STORM MODE
MAY BE MORE CLUSTERED AND MULTICELLULAR TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT OR SOONER.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
AFTER A COUPLE DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT,
WILL SEE A WARMUP ON TUESDAY CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT SEEMS TO BE MORE AS A RESULT
OF DOWNSLOPING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DRY AIR AS H5 RIDGING ISN'T
IMPRESSIVE. THE NEWLY ADDED WATER IN THE SOIL SHOULD MATTER WRT
MITIGATING MAX TEMPS, BUT DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH. WIDESPREAD
100-105 TEMPS ARE FORECAST. WILL SEE IF THIS DECREASES AS MODELS
ADJUST GROUND MOISTURE, BUT IT WILL BE HOT EVEN IF THIS IS
CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW, THE NEXT
FRONT WILL ARRIVE QUICKLY AND END THE BRIEF HEAT WAVE AS HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S THU.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS
INDICATE THE MONSOON INFLUENCE RETURNS FROM THE WEST. H5 HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DESERT SW LEADING TO RIDGE ROLLER
DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR GENERATING STORMS
THAT TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE NE FOR POPS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IN DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. IT ALSO FAVORS INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
MVFR CEILINGS STILL LINGER OVER KAMA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 19Z. THERE'S A CHANCE CEILINGS COULD
STAY OVC AND MVFR BEYOND 19Z, BUT THEY SHOULD NOT HOLD PAST 20Z.
LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN TO THE FA MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE PRESENT AT KAMA AND KDHT BETWEEN 12Z TO 17Z IF TRENDS
HOLD. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE AT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION...55
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