594
FXUS64 KAMA 150026
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
726 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON MONDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY AND TOMORROW. MUCH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PROBABILITIES
HOLD FOR WIDESPREAD 100S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LEAD TOME SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE ON RADAR HAS BEEN MORE
IMPRESSIVE THAN WHAT IS BEING MEASURED WITH THE CURRENT WAVE
ACROSS THE NW AND GIVEN THIS POPS ARE LIMITED TO 20-30 PERCENT.
SOME OF THESE WEAK SHOWERS MAY REACH AREAS CLOSER TO AMARILLO
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE POPS. THERE IS A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE AND CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM, BUT CHANCES OF THIS SEEM TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING IS A DIFFERENT
STORY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SLIGHTLY. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND
CAPE TO WARRANT MARGINAL SVR RISK BY SPC TOMORROW. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND HOW FAR EAST THESE WILL REACH GIVEN
INCREASING CAPPING/CIN IN THE EAST. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR
STORMS TO IMPACT THE FAR WEST COUNTIES. OUTSIDE OF THAT LIMITING
POPS TO 20 PERCENT MAKES MORE SENSE FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES COUPLED WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH-END LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA-E VALUES
PREVAIL TODAY AND ALLOW THE COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL EVENTUALLY DISPERSE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WINDS
WILL STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST BEFORE ULTIMATELY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
THIS MORNING WILL ALSO CEASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THAT IS
IF PRECIPITATION IS STILL MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AS WE HAVE NOT
RECEIVED ANY CONFIRMATION WITH METAR DATA. HIGHS TODAY STILL MAY
NOT ESCAPE THE 60S AND 70S DUE TO HOW LONG WE HAVE MITIGATED DAY
TIME HEATING. LATER THIS EVENING, CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER IN OUR AREA WILL LIKELY NOT BE
SEVERE. MOST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES DUE TO LINGERING SURFACE INHIBITION
IN OUR AREA. STILL, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO LIFT ABOVE THE CAP
TONIGHT, THEY WILL HAVE A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
WORK WITH AND PERMIT ANOTHER SMALL ROUND OF CONVECTION FOR THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS HIGH OVER
THE CWA TONIGHT, CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION.
TOMORROW, 12Z GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NBM, HAVE RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLE DUE TO A
QUICKER EROSION OF CLOUD COVER FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
HIGHS PERHAPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 80S. MONDAY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AMONGST CAMS AS
SOME SUGGEST ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL MAKE IT, WHILE OTHERS
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION.
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. INVERTED VS AND HIGH LCLS FROM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO BE
PRESENT FOR STORMS THAN REMAIN MORE ISOLATED WITH ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, WHILE THE STORM MODE
MAY BE MORE CLUSTERED AND MULTICELLULAR TO THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT OR SOONER.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WITH BROAD SCALE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN US AND AN EVENTUAL
RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS, WE LOOK TO KEEP A FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. A RETURN TO
WARMTH IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 90S FOR THE
CWA. BY WEDNESDAY, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN TRIPLE DIGITS SURGING INTO THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN WIDESPREAD 100S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. HEAT PRODUCTS LOOKS TO BECOME
NECESSARY IN THE COMING DAYS IF TRENDS HOLD.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY TO FALL BACK INTO THE 80S. REPEAT SHORTWAVES AS THE H500
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL SHOULD LET TEMPERATURES BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THOUGH, SOME
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS THAT WAA WILL STAY STRONG DESPITE
FRONTAL PASSAGES, AND WE COULD BE BACK IN THE 100S BY THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN ACTIVE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK
EXCEPT WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
TIME, SO POPS ARE HIGHEST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SOME ELEVATED WEAK SHOWERS WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR AND THEY WILL NOT LIKE DROP FLIGHT CATS BELOW IFR LEVELS. DHT
HAS GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEEING RAIN FROM THESE, FOLLOWED BY AMA
LATE TONIGHT. A GENERAL MVFR CIG UNRELATED TO THE SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE COOL DAMP AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND
YESTERDAY'S FRONT. AMA IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY SITE EXPECTED TO SEE
THIS CLOUD DECK, ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET VERY CLOSE TO DHT FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. THIS WILL SCT OUT AND LIFT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 00Z TUE. DHT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR IMPACTS FROM THESE, BUT WILL ADDRESS THIS IN NEXT CYCLE.
GITTINGER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...88
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