383
FXUS64 KAMA 151745
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1245 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- ISOLATED TO MAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUE FAVORING THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
- HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WED ESPECIALLY PDC, AS TEMPERATURES
COULD REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS PANHANDLES WIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS OF
THIS WRITING. THE COMBINED PANHANDLES HAVE WNW FLOW ALOFT, WHICH IS
PROGGED TO BECOME MORE NW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WINDS
ALOFT ARE CURRENTLY WEAK AND WILL REMAIN WEAK AS THE MAIN SYSTEM
STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS SURFACE
WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. H7 THETA-E
ADVECTION REMAINS POSITIVE OVER THE AREA, LEAVING SOME CHANCES,
ALTHOUGH LOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT STORMS WILL HAVE TO FORM OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SURVIVE COMING INTO THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
WEAKENING IF NOT DYING AS IT GETS TO THE AMARILLO/GUYMON LINE. A
MARGINAL RISK IS EXPECTED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. IF STORMS CAN
GET SUPPORT FROM SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS TONIGHTS SCATTERED STORMS
COULD SURVIVE AND MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ALL THE WAY TO THE
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TUE MORNING. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A BIT OF H5 PVA WILL BE TRAVELING MORE NNW TO
SSE THAN W TO E, LIMITING THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF STORM ACTIVITY.
BY TUE, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE WEST. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
AT H5 WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WITH
THIS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING, TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BIT OF
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEAVING THE WEST SLIGHTLY MORE DRY THAN THE
EAST. THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL HAVE SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY MAY
LAY. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS FORMING ACROSS
CENTRAL TO EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST DUE
TO A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME POPS
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PANHANDLES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WED, SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE UNDER A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL HELP FEED IN SOME DRY AND WARM AIR. H5 HEIGHTS ARE ONLY
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 586 DAM, BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. H85
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO GET INTO THE 32 TO 34 DEGREES C RANGE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. THE
NBM AS CONSISTENTLY BEEN GIVING AMARILLO A HIGH AROUND 105.
HOWEVER, BIAS CORRECTION MAY BE MAKING THIS TOO HIGH. A MORE
REASONABLE TEMPERATURE WOULD BE AROUND 101 TO 103. THEREFORE, HAVE
BLENDED WITH CONSRAW AND BROUGHT AMARILLO DOWN TO 103. PALO DURO
CANYON IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR WED AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE TROUGH GETS, TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT THE TRIPLE
DIGITS DUE TO BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE AND NOT AS WARM H85
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN.
WED INTO THU IS LOOKING TO BE A DRY PERIOD WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. WITH POPS RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST THU NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO SHOOT INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN ANOTHER 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR THU
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SYSTEM HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S BOTH
FOR THU AND FRI BEFORE RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
WEEKEND. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POPS REMAIN LOW UP UNTIL SUN
NIGHT. THERE IS HINTS AT GREAT H7 MOISTURE RETURNING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES BRING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BACK TO AROUND 30 OR ABOVE LATE SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BETTER
POPS FAVOR THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, THE PRESENT CLOUD DECK FROM THIS MORNING IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN WITH MOST OF THE TERMINALS
RETURNING TO MORE CONSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST AS PRESENT CAMS DO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
AROUND 22 TO 23 UTC THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW, THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR KAMA AND KDHT TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE
WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE FOCUSED ON
REDUCE VISIBILITY DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE
STORMS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO CLEAR AS WE NEAR THE
MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...11
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