824
FXUS64 KAMA 151838
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
138 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO BECOME
SEVERE.
- EXTREME HEAT EXPECTED FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
UPPER-LEVEL NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE COMBINED PANHANDLES AS A
RESULT OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH SPANNING FROM THE
EAST COAST TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL ESTABLISH A LEE SIDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION,
DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN CENTRAL CO. UPSLOPING FLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INITIATE STORMS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL CO AND EASTERN NM. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTERLY
INTO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WHERE THEY WILL RUN INTO MODERATE
INSTABILITY (~1000 J/KG) AND 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPING A FEW SUPERCELLS,
BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MESSIER STORM MODE (LIKELY CLUSTERS) AS
IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTERLY. THE BEST CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER RESIDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, WHERE THE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHEAR MEETS THE MOST INSTABILITY. HODOGRAPHS LOOK
SLIGHTLY BETTER IN THIS REGION AS WELL, BUT WEAK SURFACE WINDS
KEEP HODOGRAPHS MODEST IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HOWEVER, INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
CONTINUOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY ANOTHER
10 DEGREES, PUTTING MOST OF THE PANHANDLES IN THE LOW-90'S. WITH
MOISTURE STILL LINGERING, THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNALLY HEATED
STORMS TO CONVECT REMAINS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA DUE TO SOME SOME SLIGHT HELP OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
FROM THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A DIFFUSE MOISTURE BOUNDARY.
HOT AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GOING TO TOP OUT OUR
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, BUT FALL OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALLOWING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GO UNTOUCHED BY BREEZE. H850 TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED IN THE LOW- TO MID- 30'S. THE ENTIRETY OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, WITH PDC
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO REACH 110 DEGREES.
FERGUSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL TAPER BACK OFF ON THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE
MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES, SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHERLY. HOWEVER,
MAXT'S WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 80'S, BEFORE CONTINUING TO RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING FLOW FOR POP
CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. INTO THE WEEKEND, A
TROUGH OFF OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO EJECT
OVER THE PANHANDLES, WHICH AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA, COULD BRING BACK
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THESE DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CURRENTLY FAVOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES STARTING AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY EVENING.
FERGUSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, THE PRESENT CLOUD DECK FROM THIS MORNING IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN WITH MOST OF THE TERMINALS
RETURNING TO MORE CONSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THESE
CONDITIONS MAY NOT LAST AS PRESENT CAMS DO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
AROUND 22 TO 23 UTC THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW, THE
POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR KAMA AND KDHT TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE
WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE FOCUSED ON
REDUCE VISIBILITY DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE
STORMS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO CLEAR AS WE NEAR THE
MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...11
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