304
FXUS64 KAMA 160454
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- WIDESPREAD 100 TO 110 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PALO DURO CANYON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS VERY LOW
AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SOME RAIN OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL DRAW IN WARMER AIR
FROM NEW MEXICO AND WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID-
90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING
(AT BEST), PERHAPS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, AND TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CAMS AND MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SHOW ANYWHERE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE IN THIS AREA ALONG WITH 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS, COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER, AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP GIVEN WEAK FORCING AT BEST. THUS, POPS AROUND 10% SEEMS
REASONABLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS VERY TILTED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. VERY WARM
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 34C (93F) TO 37C (99F), WHICH IS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THAT DATE. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
100+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. A CAVEAT IS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO UNDERACHIEVE BUT HEAT
INDICES TO OVERACHIEVE. REGARDLESS, THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CREEPING INTO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHENS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CAUSE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PUSH BACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINS TO DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS THIS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS, AND
WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN THROUGHOUT THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF THE FRONTAL
TIMING HOLDS UP. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT FORCING
IS WEAK WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NOTEWORTHY ELEVATED INSTABILITY, RANGING
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SIDE (GFS) TO 2000-3000
J/KG. HAIL AND LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS, BUT
GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HAIL THREAT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US ON FRIDAY WHICH
PUMPS A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP ON FRIDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER-90S WILL RETURN.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME PRESENT ON SUNDAY WITH A FLATTENED
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE ZONAL FLOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE
AVAILABILITY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. IF A SOLUTION LIKE THE GFS
VERIFIES, WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY 700MB AIR ADVECTING INTO MUCH
OF THE AREA, THEN THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE UNLIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SOMEWHAT GOING INTO MONDAY, BUT STILL LOOKING
AT WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK BETTER
THAN SUNDAY GIVEN FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR GUYMON THROUGH THE NEXT 6
HOURS, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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