782
FXUS64 KAMA 161145
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
645 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP, THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- WIDESPREAD 100 TO 110 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PALO DURO CANYON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS VERY LOW
AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
AN ISOLATED STORM HAS FORMED NORTHEAST OF GUYMON THIS MORNING AND
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR A
SEVERE STORM THIS MORNING BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHTNING MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS CELL BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. LOOKING TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, STRONG ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED
WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FORMING IS
STILL NOT THE HIGHEST, BUT MORE CAMS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST THAT
STORM INITIATION MAY OCCUR. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
BE IN PLACE THAT IF A STORM DOES FORM, IT COULD BE SEVERE, WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IF
ANYTHING DOES FORM, IT WILL LIKELY LOSE STRENGTH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL DOWN.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SOME RAIN OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL DRAW IN WARMER AIR
FROM NEW MEXICO AND WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID-
90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING
(AT BEST), PERHAPS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, AND TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CAMS AND MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SHOW ANYWHERE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE IN THIS AREA ALONG WITH 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS, COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER, AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP GIVEN WEAK FORCING AT BEST. THUS, POPS AROUND 10% SEEMS
REASONABLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS VERY TILTED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. VERY WARM
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 34C (93F) TO 37C (99F), WHICH IS NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THAT DATE. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
100+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. A CAVEAT IS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WHICH COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO UNDERACHIEVE BUT HEAT
INDICES TO OVERACHIEVE. REGARDLESS, THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CREEPING INTO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHENS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WILL CAUSE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PUSH BACK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEGINS TO DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS THIS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS, AND
WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN THROUGHOUT THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IF THE FRONTAL
TIMING HOLDS UP. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT FORCING
IS WEAK WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NOTEWORTHY ELEVATED INSTABILITY, RANGING
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SIDE (GFS) TO 2000-3000
J/KG. HAIL AND LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS, BUT
GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE HAIL THREAT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US ON FRIDAY WHICH
PUMPS A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP ON FRIDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER-90S WILL RETURN.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME PRESENT ON SUNDAY WITH A FLATTENED
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE ZONAL FLOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE
AVAILABILITY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. IF A SOLUTION LIKE THE GFS
VERIFIES, WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY 700MB AIR ADVECTING INTO MUCH
OF THE AREA, THEN THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE UNLIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SOMEWHAT GOING INTO MONDAY, BUT STILL LOOKING
AT WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK BETTER
THAN SUNDAY GIVEN FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THE TERMINALS WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY AT THE SITES. THE WIND WILL INCREASE STARTING
AROUND 06Z AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND INCREASES AND GUSTS COULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE. IF
GUSTS DO NOT MIX DOWN, LLWS WILL OCCUR, BUT AM LEANING ON THE SIDE
OF STRONGER GUSTS AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS FORECAST. THERE ARE
VERY LOW (10-15 PERCENT) CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO FORM OR BE
NEAR KGUY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...05
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