249
FXUS64 KAMA 170437
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF WHICH WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY
OF BECOMING SEVERE.
- EXTREME HEAT EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH CWA WIDE TRIPLE DIGITS,
AND AREAS SUCH AS PDC REACHING UP TO 110 DEGREES.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT SEEM LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
PERSISTENT SW SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
INTO THE 90'S ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE, AS THERE IS
A CLEAR LACK OF FORCING MECHANISMS OTHER THAN REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40+ KTS AND ML CAPE ANYWHERE
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG (HIGHER SWATH THROUGH THE NE PANHANDLES).
ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO BE MET IN THE EAST, IF
TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL (AND LESS LIKELY THE
WESTERN), CONVECTIVE INITIATION COULD SHIFT WEST ACCORDINGLY.
THEREFORE, IF A STORM IS ABLE TO INITIATE BY REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES, PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND UP TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. STEERING VECTORS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY,
WHICH COULD PUSH ANY STORMS THAT FIRE THERE OUT OF OUR AREA RATHER
QUICKLY.
ON WEDNESDAY, 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 31-37C ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT, AND COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY MORNING ALL
POINT TOWARD A VERY HOT DAY. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
CWA WIDE, WITH PDC CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO REACH AROUND 110F. AREAS
WITHIN THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY COULD ALSO SEE UPPER 110'S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE TO DAMPEN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS
WEAK, BUT STILL POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE WHERE
MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO HOLD ON THE LONGEST.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
WILL PUSH FROM N TO S OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WITH IT A N WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
SHUFFLE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 80'S TO LOW 90'S. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS STILL VERY
QUESTIONABLE ALONG THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS THE COLD FRONT THE NIGHT
BEFORE, THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SE CWA ON THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ML CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE
ALONG OUR VERY SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT (POSSIBLY SHIFTING SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA), BULK SHEAR IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF SEVERE PARAMETERS AND VERY
QUESTIONABLE FORCING LEAVES A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
FERGUSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF
THE US AS WE ENTER THE LONG TERM. WHERE PAST RUNS HAD THIS TROUGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EJECTING OVER THE PANHANDLES, IT HAS TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH, KEEPING THE PANHANDLES UNDER A RIDGING PATTERN.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BUILD BACK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
TO CREATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE
MODELS STILL FAVOR A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, THIS HAS
BEGUN TO FAVOR THE WESTERN CWA. THEREFORE, WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN
ZONAL FLOW BEING OUR FORCING MECHANISM FOR SURFACE RESPONSES, THIS
COULD SET UP A PATTERN WHERE WE SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A WEAK BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
THAT WEATHER MAKER, LIKELY COOLING THINGS OFF TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
FERGUSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 10-20 KTS, WITH AMARILLO BEING ON THE
HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS WILL
PRECLUDE MENTION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR AMARILLO
AND GUYMON, BUT THAT MAY NEED ADDED LATER IF THE GUSTS DON'T COME
TO FRUITION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT ALL SITES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ012>015-
017>020.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...52
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