640
FXUS64 KAMA 171730
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM 100 TO 109 DEGREES, IS EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, SUNDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE POLAR JET STREAM IS STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
IS STRETCHED FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 1KM AGL WILL ADVECT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND WE WILL HAVE NEAR-
RECORD TO POSSIBLY RECORD 850MB TEMPERATURES WITH THE 18/00Z
SOUNDING. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 100S ACROSS
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE PANHANDLES. THERE WAS A TOUGH DECISION TO BE
MADE ABOUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR PALO DURO
CANYON. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD KEEP THE
FLOOR FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY IN THE MORNING, BUT WINDS WEAKEN TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE QUICKLY. IT IS LIKELY TO BE
CLOSE TO REACHING 110 DEGREES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO CONVERT THE WATCH INTO A WARNING. WILL THEREFORE CONVERT IT
INTO A HEAT ADVISORY, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS
IN THE MORNING FOR A LATE UPGRADE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE NBM'S HIGHS FOR THURSDAY SEEM TO BE GROSSLY
OVERDONE GIVEN THAT COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN TO THE PANHANDLES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THERE'LL BE 30-70% CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH A 5 TO 15
DEGREE DECREASE NOTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LAYER OF WARM AND MOIST AIR REMAINS ABOVE
THE COOL AIRMASS, BUT THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CAPPED THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAP MAY
BECOME WEAK ENOUGH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THAT POTENTIAL.
AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ELEVATED CAPPING INVERSION WILL WEAKEN
ENOUGH SUCH THAT PARCELS WILL BE ABLE TO LIFT FREELY. FORCING WILL
BE WEAK, BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT JUST ENOUGH FORCING
COULD MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SPARK OFF SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FRIDAY MORNING (00Z-12Z) ON THE ORDER OF 2000-
3500 J/KG, WITH SOME MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS SHOWING 3500-5000 J/KG
(12KM NAM). FORTUNATELY, WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE WEAK BUT THE
SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD LEAD TO 20-30 KTS EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THESE
STORMS, SHOULD THEY DEVELOP, WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE (AND QUICKLY). THE RELATIVELY WEAKER WIND
SHEAR WILL LOWER THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MAX HAIL SIZE, BUT STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1.5" TO 2" HAIL WITH THOSE INSTABILITY
VALUES. A POTENTIAL FAILURE MODE FOR THE OVERNIGHT STORMS IS IF THE
AFTERNOON ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWESTERN TEXAS COMES TO FRUITION (LIKE THE 3KM NAM). IN
THIS CASE, THIS COULD CREATE ISSUES WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION BEING
TOO STRONG. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FAILURE MODE IS IF THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THIS COULD FOCUS
CONVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS RATHER THAN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A BROAD AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER
TEXAS AND OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN US ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TRY TO REBOUND, BUT MORNING CLOUDS MAY COMPLICATE THAT. CLOUDS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AS WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO
THE PANHANDLES. A SHORTWAVE IS FAVORED TO MOVE IN AND AMID
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BROADER SHORTWAVE.
THE NBM HAS 20-40% POPS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED AS THEY
MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES ON SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL EXERT SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN THE NORTH.
DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AND LOW-100S. THE NBM HAS POPS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
PREVENT THAT.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL SET UP TO THE WEST OF THE PANHANDLES WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IF THE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNER
STATES, THEN THIS WOULD LEAVE THE PANHANDLES UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD PROMOTE AN ACTIVE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. BETWEEN 12Z THROUGH TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, MVFR CIGS
SHOULD ENTER THE TAF SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS, INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES FROM AROUND 12Z TO THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ007>020-317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29
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