315
FXUS64 KAMA 171943
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
243 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
-DAILY THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PANHANDLES FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHERE SOME STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
AFTER A HOT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES TO
REACH 100 OR HIGHER, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING THURSDAY MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GET
A BIT BREEZY, SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, ESPECIALLY
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. MEANWHILE, RAIN CHANCES CLOSES TO THE
DEPARTING FRONT IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE MAY FIRST SEE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT, LATEST 12-15Z HI-RES
AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS AN H700 TROUGH TRAVERSING NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW NIGHT. ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS, WE COULD SEE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY. WE SHOULD BE PRETTY CAPPED,
BUT LATEST VERTICAL PROFILES SHOWING PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG IN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DATA.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE,
BUT WATCHING MID LEVEL ACTIVITY CLOSELY, AS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE ACTIVE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL
DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD 70S POSSIBLE, IF THE CLOUD COVER IS PREDOMINANT MOST OF
THE DAY TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
ANEMIC H500 ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE PANHANDLES
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE DRY. FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES, CLOSER TO THE MORE PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL STEERING FLOW JET, THIS SHOULD ASSIST IN DAILY DIURNAL
CONVECTION OFF THE CO/NM. THE ANGLE OF THE DAILY STEERING FLOW AND
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLES EACH DAY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A DEVELOPING H500 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FAR SW CONUS
WILL ENHANCE STEERING FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE CHANCES OF STORMS BY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. BETWEEN 12Z THROUGH TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, MVFR CIGS
SHOULD ENTER THE TAF SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS, INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES FROM AROUND 12Z TO THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ007>020-317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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