697
FXUS64 KAMA 180446
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1146 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
-DAILY THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PANHANDLES FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHERE SOME STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
AFTER A HOT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES TO
REACH 100 OR HIGHER, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING THURSDAY MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GET
A BIT BREEZY, SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, ESPECIALLY
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. MEANWHILE, RAIN CHANCES CLOSES TO THE
DEPARTING FRONT IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE MAY FIRST SEE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT, LATEST 12-15Z HI-RES
AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS AN H700 TROUGH TRAVERSING NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW NIGHT. ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS, WE COULD SEE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY. WE SHOULD BE PRETTY CAPPED,
BUT LATEST VERTICAL PROFILES SHOWING PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG IN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DATA.
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE,
BUT WATCHING MID LEVEL ACTIVITY CLOSELY, AS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD BE ACTIVE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL
DROP TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD 70S POSSIBLE, IF THE CLOUD COVER IS PREDOMINANT MOST OF
THE DAY TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
ANEMIC H500 ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE PANHANDLES
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE DRY. FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES, CLOSER TO THE MORE PRONOUNCED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL STEERING FLOW JET, THIS SHOULD ASSIST IN DAILY DIURNAL
CONVECTION OFF THE CO/NM. THE ANGLE OF THE DAILY STEERING FLOW AND
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLES EACH DAY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A DEVELOPING H500 HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FAR SW CONUS
WILL ENHANCE STEERING FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE CHANCES OF STORMS BY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS THROUGH THE
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL TERMINALS
LATER TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AMARILLO, BUT SHOULD BREAK UP FOR DALHART AND GUYMON
DURING THE DAY. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
FRONT, BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
VANDEN BOSCH
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52
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