101
FXUS64 KAMA 180523
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1223 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES SATURDAY, SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD UPPER-90S TO MID-100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SEASONABLY STRONG JET STREAM
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY REGION, WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE, THERE IS A RIDGE IN PLACE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SHOW THAT A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT HAS NOW WORKED INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES, THOUGH IT'S
CURRENTLY SO WEAK THAT IT'S HARD TO DISCERN. UPSTREAM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY (AS OF 9 PM) IN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND QUICKLY WORKING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PANHANDLES.
EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PUSHES
SOUTHEAST INTO LUBBOCK. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING, A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN US INTO
THE PLAINS WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH,
THOUGH WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE'S SOME 30-35 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
STAY BELOW 50 MPH, BUT WE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS GET NEAR 50 MPH IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR FROM 6 AM TO AROUND 3 PM. MEANWHILE, LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AFTER THE FRONT.
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUD SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THURSDAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, THE NBM
CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM AND MUCH WARMER THAN THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE (THOUGH CLOSER THAN YESTERDAY); WILL AGAIN LOWER THURSDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
A SUBTLE, WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE VARYING IDEAS
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE, SOME FORCING MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON CAM AND
MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOW SATURATED
AND STABLE LOW-LEVELS WITH AN INVERSION UP TO 1KM AGL. EARLIER IN
THE AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE CAPPED ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BUT THEY
SUGGEST THAT THIS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW MOSTLY
UNCAPPED, LARGE INSTABILITY PROFILES (LIFTED INDEX BETWEEN -8 TO -
10) WITH MUCAPE RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG, POTENTIALLY HIGHER.
OVERALL WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK, BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WILL BE ABLE TO SLIGHTLY COMPENSATE. REGARDLESS, IT SHOULD BE
REASONABLE TO EXPECT EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 15 KTS TO
30 KTS, THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL TO SEE AS MUCH AS 35 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINE TO SUGGEST QUICKLY DEVELOP MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PRIMARILY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, HEAVY RAIN,
AND PLENTIFUL LIGHTNING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ELEVATED TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL IF THE HIGHER SHEAR COMES TO FRUITION. HAIL BETWEEN 1.5"
TO 2" IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM,
THOUGH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE WILL BE MORE LIKELY WITH A
SUPERCELL (SHOULD ONE DEVELOP).
THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS START AND
WHEN THEY'LL END, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKELY THAT THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AFTER SUNRISE OF FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT BEGIN TO BREAK APART IN THE AFTERNOON.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO BEGIN SATURDAY SHOULD CONSIST OF A RIDGE
OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN US, AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.
MEANWHILE, WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE PANHANDLES.
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. A
PERTURBATION IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE PRIMARILY, BUT BARRING A
SOUTHWARD TREND, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN KANSAS AND
COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S AND 100S ON SUNDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD BUT FLATTENS FURTHER. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE AND AT 700MB
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
SUNDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD THROW A WRENCH
IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THAT AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN MORE FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD WORK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FORCING.
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US WITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA OR THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
PANHANDLES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE RIDGE. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR A THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY (OR, MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE PATTERN,
NIGHTLY) BASIS. CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
SUCH A PATTERN, BUT WON'T GET INTO DETAILS AT THIS RANGE.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS THROUGH THE
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ALL TERMINALS
LATER TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR AMARILLO, BUT SHOULD BREAK UP FOR DALHART AND GUYMON
DURING THE DAY. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE
FRONT, BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
VANDEN BOSCH
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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