106
FXUS64 KAMA 181928
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
228 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME STORMS THAT COULD BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
FOR THE PANHANDLES, WITH VARYING DEGREE OF COVERAGE EACH DAY.
- TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT COULD RETURN THE SECOND HALF OF THE COMING
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLIER TODAY, CURRENT 18Z
OBSERVATIONS SHOWS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INT HE
SE TX PANHANDLE TO MID AND UPPER 70S IN THE WESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER, AND SOME VERY LIGHT
PATCHY DRIZZLE AT TIMES WITH UPSLOPE NE SFC FLOW. FURTHER SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, DECENT H700 (+)THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE
SW AND SURFACE FLOW FROM THE N/NE IS HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. OUR LATEST
18Z AMA SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONGLY CAPPED SURFACE BASED SOUNDING,
HOWEVER, WITH AN ABUNDANCE MUCAPE OF AROUND 2700 J/KG (ON PAR WITH
CURRENT 18Z RAP/HRRR ANALYSIS FOR THIS HOUR). THE MORE
CONCENTRATED AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BE THE CATALYST OF
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A SE PROGRESSING H700 TROUGH BISECTING THE TX
PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, IN- CONJUNCTION WITH
RESIDUAL COLD POOLS FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST,
SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH LIFT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL TIMING OF STORMS STARTING
AS EARLY AS 04-06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 10-12Z, MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH AND THE POSITIONING OF THE H700 TROUGH, HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO WATCH CLOSELY TONIGHT, ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND VIVID LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS STORMS EXIT THE REGION, BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PICKS UP POTENTIALLY FOR THE FAR WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS. LIMITED STEERING FLOW SHOULD CONTAIN MOST ACTIVITY IN
NM, BUT SOME STORMS COULD REACH THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE ACROSS THE 80S FOR ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
H500 ZONAL FLOW, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHERE PERSISTENT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES WILL BE FAVORED EACH DAY FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MOST LIKELY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH
DAY. DEPENDING ON THE STEERING FLOW, MORE OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
COULD BE IN PLAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES MOST LIKELY FURTHER NORTHWEST IN THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MORE DISCRETE CELLS TO FORM AND COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE, STARTING ON SATURDAY, AND WITH EACH PASSING
DAY, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
STRONG H850 WAA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD SEE AT OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID TO LATE JUNE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT KAMA/KDHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT KGUY. MVFR TO AT TIMES IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPACT ALL
TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 03-04Z THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED FOR KAMA FROM 05-10Z FOR TSRA
POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE NNE AT 15-25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO EASTERLY AFTER 00Z
AT 5-15 KTS AND THEN VEER AGAIN TO SOUTHERLY PAST 12Z TO THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 5-15 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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