411
FXUS64 KAMA 291828
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
128 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. EXPECTING HIGHS TO INCREASE FURTHER AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
TODAY OUR PRIMARY WEATHER FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT HOT TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES. AN AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS LAYING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY, KEEPING US QUITE
BREEZY WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
STRONGER SOUTH WINDS ARE MAINTAINING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
REGION, WITH 60S TO EVEN LOW 70S DEW POINTS BEING OBSERVED IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ACROSS MOST OF
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES WILL KEEP THEM QUIETER WITH HOT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE IMPROVED
THETA-E AND VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH
WILL PROMOTE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD HELP
STORM DEVELOPMENT SURVIVE TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT
LINGERING MIXED-LAYER INHIBITION COULD STILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LIKE WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND. BEST SCATTERED
STORM CHANCES (20-30%) ARE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE, WHICH
SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM A HEREFORD TO BORGER TO BEAVER LINE. SHEAR
IS WEAK (<20KTS), BUT CAPE AND DCAPE ARE BOTH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
TODAY TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM (~1500-
2000 J/KG OF BOTH PARAMETERS). ANY STORMS THAT POP UP THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING SHOULD FIZZLE OUT OVERNIGHT AS THEY LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TOMORROW, MODELS SHOW DEEP TROUGHING DIGGING DOWN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE LIFTING OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL PUT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
PANHANDLES. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE
SLATED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY ACROSS MORE OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES. PWATS
OF 1.25-1.75" WILL BE SPREAD ATOP THE REGION, ALONG WITH 1000-2000
J/KG MUCAPE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20-50% AS A
RESULT, WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIT OR MISS STORMS WITH BETTER
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN TANDEM WITH A LOW DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. ANY AREA THAT DOES GET A STRONGER STORM WILL HAVE 10-40%
PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED 0.5" OF RAINFALL.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE OUR LAST TRULY DECENT RAIN CHANCE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK, AS MODELS SHOW LARGE SCALE TROUGHING FIRMLY ATOP
THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL DECLINE AS 850MB
TEMPS DECREASE, BUT BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENCE OF
QUALITY MOISTURE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. AS A RESULT OF THESE
FACTORS, MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS, BUT THE
POTENTIAL WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE OF THE CWA. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE QUALITY OF WIND SHEAR TO SEE IF STORMS COULD BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED/SEVERE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTING TO END THIS WEEK, WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES
AND ALMOST NO RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, NEWEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS NOW DEPICT SOUTHWEST FLOW/TROUGHING HOLDING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL LIKELY TO RETURN PANHANDLES WIDE BY THE WEEKEND, WE ACTUALLY
COULD HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR SPOTTY CONVECTION RECURRING EACH DAY OF
THE LONG TERM. THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR STORMS UNFORTUNATELY APPEARS
TO BE FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND, WHICH COULD IMPACT OUTDOOR PLANS.
ONE PROMISING NOTE FOR FANS OF FIREWORKS AND FESTIVITIES IS THAT
WIND SPEEDS ARE PROJECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
HARREL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WINDS STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING UP TO 35
KTS. LLWS WILL BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT FOR AT LEAST KGUY AND KAMA,
BUT POTENTIALLY AT KDHT AS WELL. A ROGUE STORM OR TWO COULD STILL
MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING NEAR KAMA, WARRANTING THE CONTINUANCE OF
A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE TERMINAL.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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