596
FXUS64 KAMA 300510
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1210 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. EXPECTING HIGHS TO INCREASE FURTHER AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE, CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY, ON TUESDAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY, AND WE WILL HAVE YET ANOTHER BREEZY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA, WE COULD SEE SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES IF DEW POINTS OVERACHIEVE (AGAIN).
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL WORK INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON, AND AROUND THAT TIME WE WILL SEE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVE
IN. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SHOW
MODERATE CAPE (1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE), BUT ONLY 15-25 KTS EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MORE LIKELY
STORM MODE. DCAPE VALUES ARE WEAKER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST
FEW DAYS, BUT 1000-1300 J/KG WITH A 20-25 KT STORM MOTION SHOULD
STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 65
MPH. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARM; AROUND -6C TO -8C.
THESE TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SHEAR AREN'T THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL, BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED, CANNOT ENTIRELY
RULE OUT LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THE PROSPECT FOR LARGE HAIL
IS THAT PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH AT 1.3" TO 1.8" ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, STRONGLY SUGGESTING ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. THIS MEANS THAT MELTING HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED. SEVERAL
30/00Z CAMS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP,
AND THE MEAN WIND COULD CAUSE THE THUNDERSTORM TO REPEATEDLY MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREA. RAIN RATES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE
EXPECTED, THOUGH WON'T BE SURPRISED IF SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
BE MATERIALIZED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
UNFORTUNATELY THERE ISN'T ANY CONSISTENCY REGARDING WHERE THIS COULD
SET UP OTHER THAN SOMEWHERE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, SO THIS WILL BE
A SITUATION WHERE MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS IT COULD
LEAD US TO IDENTIFYING THE CORRIDOR IN A NOWCASTING-TYPE SITUATION.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT OR POTENTIALLY SOON AFTER.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY, AND WE CAN EXPECT
SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS TO STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH UPPER-90S IN THE NORTHWEST. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP
THE PANHANDLES AND DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY, 1500-1800 J/KG OF DCAPE, AND 20-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. THESE FACTORS, WITH A MEAN STORM MOTION BETWEEN 25-30 KTS,
SUGGESTS THE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT WARM WITH A
RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS. THUS, LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE LESS LIKELY
BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. AGAIN, THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THOSE THAT SEE
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST BUILDING WESTWARD ON THURSDAY. WE COULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL FORCING LOOKS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE, BUT WON'T BE ABLE TO RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
WE COULD SEE THE RIDGE START TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
FROM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WON'T BE ABLE TO RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN SIGNAL FOR WEAK
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER-90S TO 100S
ON A WIDESPREAD SCALE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS ALL SITES OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW DIRECTLY THEY
WOULD AFFECT THE TAF LOCATION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
GUSTY AGAIN TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20KTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 25 OR 30KTS. BEST TIMING OF STORMS TODAY WOULD BE FROM
21Z-03Z. STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...28
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