504
FXUS64 KAMA 301911
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
211 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. EXPECTING HIGHS TO INCREASE FURTHER AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE PANHANDLES REGION CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NOTABLE 596 DECAMETER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, CENTERED OVER THE SE
CONUS. WITH SW H500 FLOW, MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING NE FROM FAR
WEST TEXAS, AS SEEN IN THE LATEST 17Z SATELLITE OBS WILL RESULT IN
MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
LATEST 18Z RAOB DATA FOR AMARILLO STILL SHOWS SOME TYPE OF CAP
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION SHOULD
HELP TO ERODE THIS. DCAPE VALUES ALSO AROUND 1100 J/KG FOR THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND 1500-1700 J/KG FOR THE NORTHERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL ESTABLISHED DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD TO WATCH LATER TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH MORE ESTABLISHED AREAS OF
CONVECTION.
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR TOMORROW FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
WITH 25-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE LINEAR SHEAR ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE H500 HIGH WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN SW FLOW REGIME.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN AID IN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WELL INTO THE
90S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE MAIN H500 HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS FROM THE LATEST 30/12Z
GLOBAL DATA WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THROUGHOUT LATER IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. WITH VERY ANEMIC H500 FLOW AS THIS HIGH
COMPRESSES, DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EACH DAY. DAY BY DAY WILL VARY WITH EXACT RAIN CHANCES, BUT EACH
DAY WILL FEATURE SOME CHANCE ABOVE 10 PERCENT. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY JULY, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD REACH THE 100-105 TEMPERATURE RANGE,
ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE FOR KAMA WHERE A PROB30 GROUP
WAS INTRODUCED FROM APPROXIMATELY 02-06Z WHERE ERRATIC WINDS FROM
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-25
KTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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