622
FXUS64 KAMA 011134
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH BEST CHANCES
FAVORING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES.DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. EXPECTING HIGHS TO INCREASE FURTHER AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK AND AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GRADUALLY WANING TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES, AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES OVERWORKED AND OUR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, SOME ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AS VERY SUBTLE
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ARRIVE. REGARDLESS, SKIES WILL STAY PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MAINTAINING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY, PROVIDING MID 50S TO MID 60S DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE MID LEVELS,
POCKETS OF HIGHER THETA-E WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD, WITH MODELS
SHOWING A LARGER DRY POCKET GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PLACE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK OVER THE
NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED VARIABLES SUGGEST THAT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WHERE
LIFT IS BEST (20-50% POPS). THIS IS ALSO WHERE INSTABILITY HAS THE
BEST CHANCE TO RECOVER (1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE), WHEREAS AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVERWORKED FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS (500-1500 J/KG MUCAPE), ESPECIALLY IF THE DRY POCKET TO THE
SOUTH INFILTRATES THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH
ENERGY WITH OUR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO RE-INVIGORATE THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLES ENOUGH FOR A FEW AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS AS WELL (20-30%
POPS). THE PRESENCE OF 15-30KT BULK SHEAR COULD BE SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH
TO GET SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT,
ALTHOUGH ROGUE INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND GUSTY ONE FOR THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND 15-25 MPH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35
MPH. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT WITH LESS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF A ROGUE STORM OR
TWO WERE TO FORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING, IT
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS HELD FAIRLY STEADY SHOWING A RELATIVELY HOTTER
AND QUIETER TREND HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS IS STILL
MORE OR LESS ANTICIPATED TO HOLD TRUE, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE 10- 20%
CHANCES FOR A ROGUE STORM OR TWO IN THE AREA DURING 4TH OF JULY
FESTIVITIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
TRIPLE DIGITS FRI & SAT, WITH 10-20 MPH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT THAT WE COULD HAVE
A COUPLE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) AS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES FAR MORE CHAOTIC WITH WEAK FLOW. THIS
SIGNALS THAT STORM CHANCES MAY PERSIST NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY POOR
BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK, BUT A CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN OF HOT DAYS
WITH OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES APPEARS LIKELY TO START JULY.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL AGAIN OCCUR BUT AFFECTING DIRECTLY A TAF LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND WILL NEED TO ASSESS
BETTER TIMING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE AS STORMS LIKELY WOULD
HOLD OFF UNDER AFTER 21Z.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...28
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