556
FXUS64 KAMA 011705
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1205 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
FEW BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. EXPECTING HIGHS TO INCREASE FURTHER AS WE
HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK AND AFFECT THOSE WHO ARE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PERISTENT
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH NEAR NEUTRAL HEIGHT
TENDANCIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FETCH OF
H7 TO H5 MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A MINOR SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS NOTED IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING FROM SOUTHEAST NM INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS, AND THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME LIFT ACROSS THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING (ALONG WITH SOME
ENHANCED MOISTURE). THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH
FORMING OVER EASTERN NM WITH MOSTLY 50S DEW POINTS TO THE WEST
AND LOW TO MID 60S DEW POINTS TO THE EAST. AC CLOUDS CAN BE
OBSERVED LOOKING EAST FROM THE OFFICE WHICH IS HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE EAST COMPARED TO MORE 80S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST. DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING JUST ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE AC SHIELD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE UP
TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KS.
THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE (HREF, HRRR, RRFS) SUGGEST
STORMS WILL FORM IN THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NM BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A MEAN STORM MOTION TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
20 MPH. AS THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD THEY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO SOME
CLUSTERS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER
MORE STABLE AIR. WITH MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND POCKETS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPROACHING 20-30 KTS, SOME MULTICELLS CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 1200 TO 1600 RANGE
(HIGHEST IN THE NORTHWEST) BY PEAK HEATING, WHICH WHEN COMBINED
WITH STORM SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 KTS, COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED 75
MPH GUSTS WITH THE MOST NOTABLE MICROBURSTS. NOT REALLY SEEING A
HIGH RISK FOR TRAINING STORMS TODAY (ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS ARE
TRYING TO DEVELOP STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THAT COULD TRAIN IF
THEY FORM). HOWEVER, PWATS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR IN THE STRONGER CELLS. THUS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
TOMORROW WILL SEE A SIMILAR SETUP BUT WITH LESS FORCING, SO
OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE LESS. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS
THAT DO GET GOING WILL SEE A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO TODAY. IF
THINGS REALLY GET WORKED OVER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
THEN IT WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SEEING ACTIVITY TOMORROW.
WARD
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
LATEST ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM/LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
HEIGHT RISES THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM MID 90S TO
MORE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. CURRENTLY THINKING THE AREA WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE. WITH HEAT RISK
RAMPING UP TO THE MODERATE TO MAJOR CATEGORY AND ALL THE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY, SOME HEAT IMPACTS CAN
BE EXPECTED. WITH RECORD HIGHS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES BEING
SOMEWHAT EASY TO BREAK ON SATURDAY (102 FOR AMA AND DHT, 104 FOR
BGD), WE COULD GET CLOSE. SECONDARY TO THE HEAT IS THE LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW DUE TO THE
LACK OF WIND SHEAR AND VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OR BRIEF DOWNPOURS. RAIN CHANCES COME UP
SOME SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS.
WARD
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
WILL AGAIN OCCUR BUT AFFECTING DIRECTLY A TAF LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND WILL NEED TO ASSESS
BETTER TIMING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE AS STORMS LIKELY WOULD
HOLD OFF UNDER AFTER 21Z.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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