363
FXUS64 KAMA 021046
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OK AND FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE
TOMORROW.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE TRIPLE-DIGITS IN SOME AREAS FOR JULY
4TH WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST FROM AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISION OVER EASTERN AMARILLO THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE, A REGION THAT
HAS SEEN AN EXCESS OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST WEEK. FLOODING
IS OF CONCERN THIS EVENING (ESPECIALLY IN DONLEY COUNTY) AS THESE
STORMS EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA. TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE LOW 60'S IN THE NW PANHANDLES AND THE LOW
70'S IN THE SE.
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90'S IN THE NW CWA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SE COULD BE DAMPENED A BIT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STILL BREAK INTO THE LOW 90'S.
ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, HOWEVER, WITH UPPER-
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW, THE SHORTWAVE
WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED NW OF THE PANHANDLES. THE SURFACE RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP IN EASTERN CO.
OVER THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW, LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SINCE THE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS DISPLACED
TO OUR NW, AN UPSTREAM JET ENHANCEMENT PLACES US IN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION, FAVORING SYNOPTIC DESCENT RATHER THAN LIFT. THE BEST SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS MODELED TO BE NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AS WELL, WHERE
SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BACK DUE TO THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH A STORM THAT INITIATES TO THE NORTH COULD
BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY, INTO AREAS OF 2000+ J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND 20-25 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE
CONTAINED TO THE OK AND POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE ON FRIDAY, LIKELY BREAKING INTO THE
TRIPLE-DIGITS IN SOME AREAS IN THE NW PANHANDLES. THE MOISTURE
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLES, BUT AGAIN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM MAKES ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT QUESTIONABLE.
FERGUSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
H500 HEIGHT RISES ARE STILL PROGGED INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
CONTINUOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BREAK
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
DISRUPTED ON SUNDAY WITH A PSEUDO-COLD-FRONT, WHICH WILL KNOCK HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90'S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND TRIPLE-
DIGIT DAILY HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN NEXT WEEK. DIURNALLY FUELED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE OF CONCERN AFTER SUNDAY-MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
NW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD SYNOPTICALLY SUPPORT WEATHER PATTERNS
RETURNING IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND THE NW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SEEMS TO BE SHORT LIVED.
FERGUSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN GUYMON LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THE LOW CHANCES DO NOT WARRANT A LINE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...52
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