198
FXUS64 KAMA 022318
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE TRIPLE-DIGITS IN SOME AREAS FOR JULY
4TH WEEKEND WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 7 PM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TOMORROW AT H2.
H7 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS
DAYS. THIS EVENING, A LOW LEVEL JET MAY INTRODUCE SOME LIFT FOR
THIS H7 MOISTURE TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OK
PANHANDLE INTO KS, MAYBE THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CO. MUCH
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE IN SE CO INTO
SW KS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE, AROUND A 20 POP, FOR EVERYTHING
TO LINE UP AND GIVE SOME RAIN TO THE CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. SOME OF THE CAMS DO KEEP ALL ACTIVITY
UP INTO KS THIS EVENING. IF STORMS DO GET GOING, CANNOT RULE OUT
A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL WITH HAIL BEING LESS LIKELY,
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POTENTIAL QUARTERS WITH MUCAPE
POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG. H5 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
A BIT WARM FOR EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCTION, AROUND
-8 DEGREES C.
TOMORROW, FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BECOME WEAK AND UNORGANIZED AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RAISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103 FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WITH A
BIT OF H7 MOISTURE STICKING AROUND, THEREFORE, CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY EVENING IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE 4TH OF JULY IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS THIS
WEEK WITH AMARILLO PROGGED TO HAVE AN AFTERNOON HIGH AROUND 100.
THE RECORD 4TH OF JULY HIGH FOR AMARILLO IS 102. THE ONE CAVEAT
FOR THE FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WHICH COULD HOLD BACK THE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE
FORECAST. THE LACK OF LIFTING POTENTIAL IS HOLDING BACK STORM
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY EVENING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA GOING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A NARROW BAND OF H7 MOISTURE MAY BE
PRESENT WITH AN EVENING LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY HELPING TO SPARK
SOME MINIMAL ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY AS THE BREAK SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED. SUNDAY EVENING H2 FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO
NORTHWEST AND POPS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 TO 40 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE THE
BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE COME SUN EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A BETTER CHANCE IN THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES AS OPPOSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA, POPS IN THE
EXTENDED BECOME 20 PERCENT OR LESS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. DEPENDING CLOUD COVER EACH DAY,
COULD SEE SOME LOWER 100S STILL ESPECIALLY FOR THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY AND PALO DURO CANYON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME LLWS AS THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE
TERMINALS. OVERALL SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15-20KTS, GUSTING 20-30KTS
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z, WITH LLWS AROUND 40KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND
2KFT FROM 5-15Z TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS DURING THIS TIME IN THE
12-18KT RANGE, BUT WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z TO BE 15-20 GUSTING
25-30 KTS AGAIN THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...89
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