501
FXUS64 KAMA 031014
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
514 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, BUT SO DO CHANCES
FOR STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY NARROW BAND OF BETTER H7 MOISTURE
ORIENTED NEAR A LINE FROM THE SW TO NW PANHANDLES THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS. THAT SAID, NVA FROM
H5 RIDGING TO THE SW AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BASICALLY
ELIMINATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE H5 RIDGING WILL
LIKELY SUPPRESS ACTIVITY ALONG THIS MOISTURE BAND ACROSS THE SW
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY. THE NE HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS
(10-20%) AS THERE IS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A RIDGE ROLLING
DISTURBANCE TO IMPACT THAT AREA. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BECOMING STATIONARY ANYWHERE FROM NEAR
HIGHWAY 60 TO THE FAR NW PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. IT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY WHICH WILL BE CORRECT AT THIS POINT, BUT THAT
BOUNDARY MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS
IF THE H5 RIDGE ISN'T STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
ALTOGETHER. 15-25% CHANCE OF RAIN SEEMS REASONABLE FAVORING AREAS
FROM HIGHWAY 60 NORTHWARD SAT LATE AFTN AND EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO PROVIDE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 7-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE USUAL HOTTER LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE H5 HIGH CENTER WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE TO THE WSW PROVIDING LEAVING THE PANHANDLES IN
FAVORABLE LOCATION TO BE INFLUENCED BY DISTURBANCES IN MID LEVEL
NW FLOW THAT RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. ON SUNDAY, IT APPEARS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WILL ALSO INCREASE CHANCES FOR
STORMS AS THE H5 PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AND POPS
ARE INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY. BEYOND SUNDAY, WSW H7 FLOW
MAINTAINS A TAP INTO MONSOON MOISTURE AND THE ECMWF, GFS AND GEM
ALL MAINTAIN A NICE H7 THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE
NOT BEEN SUPER CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN OR WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING
THE EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THIS WILL BE KEY
TO FORECASTS. NEXT WEEK COULD WORK OUT VERY FAVORABLY FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT TIMES WITH MULTIPLE STORM COMPLEXES
ASSOCIATED WITH NICE RIDGE ROLLER S/WVS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINS, OR THE RIDGE COULD DOMINATE MORE WITH MORE
ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY STEERED MORE NORTH
OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE SHOULD INFLUENCE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, THEN
TURN SOUTHERLY AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
GUYMON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTIONS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN PARTS OF THE WRN
PANHANDLES THAT HAVE BEEN MISSED BY MOST OF THE RAIN IN THE PAST
MONTH. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE FIRE STARTS GIVEN POCKETS OF
COMPLETELY CURED FUELS IN THESE AREAS. THE AREA FROM VEGA TO
STRATFORD AND TEXLINE WESTWARD IS ESPECIALLY BAD AND SOME CENTRAL
LOCATIONS AREN'T MUCH BETTER. WE MAY NEED TO START ENTERTAINING
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS THESE AREAS IF CONDITIONS DON'T BEGIN TO
IMPROVE IF WE HAVE WINDY AND DRY DAYS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION...52
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page