676
FXUS64 KAMA 031742
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES TODAY WITH A VERY LOW RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, BUT SO DO CHANCES
FOR STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANISITION FROM A SOUTHWEST TO
ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY. WITH WEAK FLOW
OVERHEAD, LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ABSENT TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE TO NO STORM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES AND SPREAD TDS FROM THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S TO THE WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
WHERE THE LOWEST TDS WILL BE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 100
TO 103 HERE WHILE THE EAST SEES TEMPS STOP SHORT OF 100. BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE FOR
STORMS TODAY WITH MAYBE THE NORTHEAST SEEING JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. IF STORMS DO OCCUR THEY
WILL LIKELY BE FROM A SHORTWAVE SPARKING ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWEST KS
THAT BLEEDS OVER INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
SATURDAY, THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
MORE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND BRING SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPANDING HIGHS IN THE 100-105 RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON MAY
LIMIT THE FULL HEATING POTENTIAL. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
PDC LOWER THAN 105 AT THIS TIME. AN H5 TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS CREATING MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCES OVER
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT LATE SATURDAY MUCH
MORE OF THE AREA IS GETTING A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE THING THAT MAY
KILL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW, OR AT LEAST LIMIT THE AFTERNOON
COVERAGE AND LONGETIVITY OF RAIN PRODCUTION, WILL BE A BIT MORE
NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AND DRY MID LEVELS. PRIMARILY IN THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY FORM. WITH A DRIER SURFACE LAYER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH RETREATS TO THE
WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SATURDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, BUT WITH
PERTURBATIONS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT POPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 30-50
RANGE GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DETAILS ARE A BIT FUZZY AT THIS
TIME BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY ONWARD, WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE AN UPPER LEVL RIDGE,
AFTERNOON HIGHS CONINTUE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PEPPERED THROUGH THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS WILL DEPEND ON DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EACH DAY WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE RESOLUTION OF
LONG TERM MODELS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER TO IMPACT KGUY BETWEEN 23Z FRI AND 04Z SAT. LOW ENOUGH TO
NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
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