225
FXUS64 KAMA 041120
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
620 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HOT
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
BUT THE STORM COVERAGE WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHILE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 60, MOST AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY, IN THE DRIER AREA, MAY BE LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 102-107 RANGE, SO A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. AREAS TO THE EAST
SHOULD BE LIMITED AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHWAY CORRIDOR IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON, THE CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL
HEATING.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
THIS WEEKEND, BUT WE DO HAVE A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND SOME
SUBTLE IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES. A
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SET UP WITH A FAIRLY STRONG BOUNDARY
OF CONVERGENCE RIGHT ALONG HIGHWAY 60 TODAY. WITH AMPLE HEATING
FROM THE RIDGE AND DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THAT HIGHWAY
CORRIDOR, THE SETUP FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE IN PLAY TODAY.
STORMS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF BEING SEVERE, AS AN
INVERTED V SETUPS WITH HIGH BASED STORMS AND AMPLE DCAPE WILL FAVOR
WIND AS THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH CAPE
AND MODERATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. PWAT'S
AROUND 1-1.2" WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK EAST AT A REASONABLE
PACE, SO THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IS VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL, STORM TIMING TODAY LOOKS TO START AROUND 4-7 PM, WITH THE
EARLIEST BEING 1-2 PM, AND THEY SHOULD FINISH IN THE 9-11 PM TIME
RANGE.
WHILE THE MAIN SHOW OF STORMS WERE NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH,
ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER STORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN
THE EVENING, AND SHOULD BRING STORMS INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE WEST, BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND MAKING
IT'S WAY DOWN TO AMARILLO IN THE 2-7 AM TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BOUNDARY SET UP FROM PUEBLO DOWN
TO THE WEST PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY AND SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND MAY EVEN
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES IF THE STORMS CAN HOLD
TOGETHER THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BE
SEVERE WITH THE WIND AGAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EXTENDED THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND
WE WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE 100S BY MID TO LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
RIGHT NOW THERE'S A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE EACH DAY, AND THAT WILL LEAD TO MODERATE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST
WHAT AREAS WILL OR WONT GET PRECIPITATION EACH DAY, BUT THE TREND IS
TO GO WARMER EACH DAY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, AND IT'S REASONABLE THAT DAILY CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE IN
PLAY, BUT THE LOCATIONS ARE VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN.
WEBER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AMARILLO LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR DALHART. STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A VERY
LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT GUYMON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ001>004-006>009-011-012-016-017-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ002.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52
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