893
FXUS64 KAMA 041719
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HOT
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS, BUT THE STORM COVERAGE WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NM TODAY WITH
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 595 DAM H5 HEIGHTS WITH BETTER DEFINED
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THAT REGION. AN MCS ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN KS HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE REGION, WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY INTERSECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL GET
HOT DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING, BUT WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE
HEAT ADVISORY BASED ON THE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH, BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST ANY 105+ F READINGS MIGHT BE
LIMITED TO PDC AND PERHAPS A FEW CANADIAN RIVER SITES, WHICH MAKES
SENSE BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, SO THE CURRENT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK FURTHER. AS NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS WITH OUR MAIN
LIFTING MECHANISM BEING THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH CONTINUES TO
SAG SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT WAS NEAR
HEREFORD TO CANYON TO PAMPA, AND MODELS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL SOON WITH SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO BREAK THE CAP (MLCIN
AROUND -50 J/KG).
EXACTLY WHERE THE FIRST STORMS INITIATE WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY
WHERE THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP, AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 WILL BE IN
PLAY, WITH STORM FORMING AS EARLY AS 2 PM. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY SEND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUT WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FAVORED OFF THESE NEW BOUNDARIES LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A 700MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E CHANNEL
PROGGED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
AND THIS IS WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTED STORM DEVELOPMENTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD MOSTLY STAY BELOW 30
KTS, SOME POCKETS OF 30+ KTS IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WHERE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. THUS,
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, AND WITH
AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE, UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE STRONG EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF BETTER SHEAR. HIGH LCLS AND LACKING LOW LEVEL
KINEMATICS WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT VERY LOW, BUT CAN'T EVER
RULE OUT SOME LANDSPOUT ACTIVITY WHEN STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARIES
ARE INVOLVED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS GIVEN LARGE DCAPE OVER 1800 J/KG IN SOME AREAS AND MEAN
STORM MOTION EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS. STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THIS EVENING TOWARDS DARK, BUT AN IMPULSE ROUNDING THE
UPPER HIGH COULD SEND ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY CENTRAL PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S. SHORT TERM MODELS WANT TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT INTENSITY AND OVERALL COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE AREA GETS FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY (ALONG WITH ANY
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA). A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPULSE SHOULD
BRING SOME ACTIVITY IN BY LATE EVENING, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE MARGINAL THAN TODAY.
WARD
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS PERIODS
OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED STORM CHANCES FOR THE
PANHANDLE REGION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT
ISOLATED STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON ANY DAY WITH SOME BEING
STRONG TO SEVERE (WIND AND HAIL MAIN THREATS). TEMPERATURES WILL
START IN THE 90S BUT CREEP UP TO NEAR 100 BY MIDDLE AND END OF
WEEK AND NEAR SURFACE FLOW BECOME MORE DOWNSLOPE.
WARD
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND KDHT THIS
EVENING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PREVAILING
OR TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME, AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER ONCE
EXACT LOCATION OF STORMS IS DETERMINED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
STORMS WILL RESULT IN CHANGES TO WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED AT THE
TERMINALS, POSSIBLY MULTIPLE TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF
STORM IMPACTS, VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING.
WARD
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ006>008-011-012-
016-017-317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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