318
FXUS64 KAMA 050600
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HOT
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS, BUT
THE STORM COVERAGE WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WITH STORMS DONE FOR THE EVENING ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, WE'RE IN A BIT
OF A LUL FOR NOW AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TONIGHT. WE ARE MONITORING THAT SECOND IMPULSE THAT HAS
SHOWER AND STORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS TRACKING SOUTHEAST. MORE RECENT
HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON STORM THREAT TONIGHT, BUT
THERE'S STILL THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED STORMS AND WILL NOT RULE OUT A
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
45-55MPH POSSIBLE, AS THAT AREA HASN'T BEEN WORKED OVER FROM ANY
STORMS TODAY.
FOR SUNDAY, THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE
AS THAT LOOKS TO BE THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. POPS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
TO BE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY. BUT SHOULD OVERNIGHT
STORMS OCCUR, THAT MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER AND
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT WE DON'T GET ANY STORMS IN THE WEST. ALL THAT
SAID THERE IS ANOTHER IMPULSE ON SUNDAY THAT COULD AID IN THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT, SO COVERAGE COULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEY COULD BECOME MORE OF A CLUSTER AT THAT POINT.
SHOULD WE GET STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY THEY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL JUST BE
WIND. IF WE MANAGE TO GET THE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS, THEY SHOULD
WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED SO THAT A MORE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE PANHANDLES KEEPING ANY OF
THOSE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ISOLATED TO EASTERN
NM, SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH POP CHANCES BELOW
MENTION FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART LOOK TO BE 5 TO
10, WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
TUESDAY WILL START OFF VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY AS WE STILL REMAIN IN
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAT MAY REACH 100 IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS, AND MAYBE WINDS UP
SLIGHTLY IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE, IT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH A COPY OF
MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS JUST A BIT, AND NOW
THERE IS A SUBTLE HINT OF MORE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLES.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS TILTED A BIT MORE IN A POSITIVE
DIRECTION, NOW SHIFTS MORE NEUTRAL, AND IS CENTERED FURTHER WEST IN
NM, V.S. ALMOST OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. THIS WILL BRING BACK
THOSE DAILY CHANCES OF STORMS AS SUBTLE IMPULSES TRY TO MOVE STORMS
OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PANHANDLES
EACH DAY. AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
AND TRANSITIONS BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH COULD REDUCE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL, THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE VERY WARM TO HOT DAYS STARTING TUESDAY AND COULD CONTINUE
ALL THE WAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEBER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. PROB30 FOR KDHT AS STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A
VERY LOW CHANCE THAT THEY COULD REACH KAMA AS WE GET CLOSER TO 12Z,
BUT NO WERE NEAR ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO NOTE A PROB30 AT KAMA, THAT
WILL BE UPDATED WITH AMENDMENTS IF IT LOOKS NECESSARY.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
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