788
FXUS64 KAMA 052352
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WITH A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE STORM IMPACTS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT BY MID WEEK.
- MUCH LESS STORMS IN THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN STORM
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MOISTURE AXIS AND TRACK OF THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE/DISTURBANCE MOVING SE WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES
THIS AFTN AND EVENING FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR
NOTED HOWEVER IS THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS IS OCCURRING NOW AND THEREFORE IS NOT TIMED WELL WITH THE
BEST HEATING AND INSTABILITY. IN FACT MODELS INDICATE OVERALL Q
VECTOR DIVERGENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON (SUGGESTING SINKING AIR), BUT
THERE IS SOME REMAINING UPSTREAM ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE NEUTRAL AND ALLOW THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN PROCESSES
TO INITIATE AND MAINTAIN CONVECTION IN THE WEST. MLCAPE IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 800 TO 1400 J/KG. DCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG WHICH
SUPPORTS ROUGHLY A 61 MPH DOWNDRAFT PLUS ANY FORWARD MOMENTUM
FROM STORM MOTION. SHEAR IS MARGINAL BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
FORECAST VALUES OF NEAR 30 ARE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS AND SPC HAS INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK AREA AS WELL
THAT MOSTLY IS SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT DOES CLIP THE FAR SW
PANHANDLES. HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WITH HAIL
SIZES MOST LIKELY LESS THAN 1 1/2 INCHES.
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE LESS ACTIVE AND WHILE WE
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROUGE STORM, POPS ARE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART ON MONDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE EXTENDS NE
ACROSS CO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ABOVE NORMAL TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY.
GITTINGER
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE EXTENSION OF THE H5 RIDGE NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO BE SHORT LIVED AS IT BECOMES MORE ROUNDED OFF TUE AND
ESPECIALLY FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE NICE H7 THETA-E
RIDGING INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM NM SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL TO
MAINTAIN STORMS INTO THE AREA OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL
OPEN THE DOOR TO NW FLOW EVENTS WITH DISTURBANCES ROLLING ACROSS
CO AND NRN NM ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR
CURRENTLY IS THE DEWPOINT FORECASTS ONLY SHOWING LOWER 50S BY THU
WHICH SUGGESTS MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THAT SAID, THE
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS NW FLOW STORMS AND MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HISTORICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN, OFTEN UNDERPLAYING
THE TSTM EVENTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS CERTAINLY HAS A
HABIT OF UNDERPLAYING DEWPOINTS AND CAPE IN THE LATER PERIODS.
THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS PATTERN AT
LEAST FOR WIND GUSTS. POPS ARE LOW ON TUE ONLY SHOWING SLIGHT
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM FOR WED
THROUGH FRI. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST POPS (40-60% PER THE NBM) ARE
INDICATED FOR THU INTO THU NIGHT W/ 20-40% WED AND FRI AND LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT ON SAT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL PROGS
BUT TIMING COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE. WHILE THE H5 RIDGE POSITION
WILL PROMOTE TSTM CHANCES, IT WILL ALSO PROMOTE CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK AGAIN.
GITTINGER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SCATTERED STORMS IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY LEAD TO BREIF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA AND KDHT THROUGH 04ZZ, BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10KTS. WINDS MAY PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 18Z AND BE 10-15 GUSTING
20-25KTS. THUNDERSTORMS NOT FAVORED IN THE AFTERNOON 18-0Z AT THIS
TIME, SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION...89
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