028
FXUS64 KAMA 221135
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
THE PANHANDLES EXPECTING MULTIPLE DAYS OF NEAR OR ABOVE TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
- THE ACCUMULATING EFFECT OF MULTIPLE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE
DAYS COMBINED WITH LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF CAN RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES AND IMPACTS.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH CONCERNS FOCUSED ON WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
PRESENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE A STRONG RIDGE AND
UPPER- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN UNITED STATES, WHICH WILL LEAVE THE PANHANDLES IN A
VERY STAGNATE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. AS IT
STANDS PRESENT EXPECTATION IS TO SEE TEMPERATURES TO KEEP WARMING
TODAY WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE MULTIPLE LOCATIONS HITTING THE TRIPLE
DIGITS ONCE AGAIN. IN OUR MORE TERRAIN BASED LOCATIONS, SUCH AS
THE PALO DURO CANYON AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY, WE CAN SEE THE
TERRAIN FEATURES HAVE AN AMPLIFYING EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES
RESULTING THESE LOCATIONS EASILY 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. THIS TERRAIN BASED HEATING EFFECT HAS ALSO PROMPTED HIGH
CONCERNS FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE EITHER VISITING OR
LIVING IN THOSE AREAS, SO A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED HOWEVER, IS THE
STILL LINGERING MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN HELD IN OUR MID TO LOW-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE
LOWER END AMOUNT WISE, IT COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE IT SLIGHTLY MORE ABUNDANT.
MOVING INTO THURSDAY, DOES HAVE MULTIPLE MODELS START TO SEE THE
PRESENT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH START TO SHIFT MORE SOUTH, WHICH IS
LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAT CONTINUE BE A PROBLEM FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER,
PRESENT TRENDS HAVE ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGH RETREAT
SLIGHTLY WEST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WESTWARD RETREAT COULD
PROVIDE THE PANHANDLES WITH OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE SOME STORMS AS
MOST MODELS SEE A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONGSIDE A POCKET OF MOISTURE
PUSH IN FROM OUR NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT CAMS RUNS HAVE
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEEING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH,
BOTH CAPE VALUES AND WIND SHEAR HAVE BEEN LACKING JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. STILL, THE PRESENT SET UP CAN’T
BE COMPLETELY OVERLOOKED AS IT GENERALLY FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ROUGE SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ADDED TO THIS WILL BE SOME DECENT
PWAT VALUES THAT COULD RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES, WHICH IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR EVEN A WEAK SHOWER TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. REGARDLESS, HEAT IS STILL GOING TO TAKE
PRECEDENCE FOR THE DAY AS MANY LOCATIONS COULD BE REACHING TRIPLE
HEAT FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY, WITH AREAS IN THE SOUTH
STARTING TO GET CLOSE TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE INTERESTING WEATHER DAY FOR THE PANHANDLES
AS MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE SEEN THE PRESENT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM RETREAT WESTWARD AND FORCE A BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA THE PRIOR DAY. THIS PARTICULAR BOUNDARY IS THE
FOCAL POINT OF INTEREST AS QUITE A FEW MODELS HAVE PLACED IT
STALLING IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS STALLED BOUNDARY COULD AID IN A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IF WE GET A LITTLE EXTRA
MOISTURE PUSH FROM WHAT REMAIN OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. STILL
THERE IS QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY STALL, SO THESE CHANCES HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND A 15 TO 30
PERCENT. OF COURSE THESE CHANCES COULD ALSO SEE TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THOUGH PRESENT MODELS
STILL SEEM TO FAVOR MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK YET AGAIN.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE
BIG TALKING POINT AS MODEL AGREEMENT DOES NOT SEE THE THE UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNTIED
STATES LAYING OFF ANYTIME SOON. WITH THIS HIGH-PRESSURE IN PLACE,
THE PANHANDLES WILL HOLD ONTO A MORE STAGNATE AND DRY UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL AID IN FORCING TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. OBVIOUSLY SUCH HOT TEMPERATURES OVER MULTIPLE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF SOME FORM OF HEAT
RELATED PRODUCTS BEING NEEDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER,
WHAT MAY NOT BE AS OBVIOUS IS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
FAIRING MUCH BETTER WITH PRESENT EXPECTATIONS SEEING LOCATIONS,
SUCH AS AMARILLO, HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EITHER BREAK OR TIE THEIR
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECTATIONS
LIKE THESE WOULD ALSO MEAN THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE RELIEF
OCCURRING DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH MAY ONLY AMPLIFY THE RISK
OF SEEING HEAT RELATED ILLNESS AS EACH DAY PASSES.
IN SHORT, THE CLOSING DAYS OF THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEK
MAY SEE A MUCH HIGHER RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESS NOT JUST FROM
VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, BUT FROM THE ACCUMULATING EFFECT
OF SEEING THESE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR MULTIPLE DAY ON TOP OF
GETTING VERY LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR
STORM THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS AFFECTING
ANY TAF LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE OUT OF DUE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND GUSTS TO 20KTS.
THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ007-008-317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...28
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