253
FXUS64 KAMA 230542
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1242 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
- MULTIPLE DAYS OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ALONG SIDE VERY
LITTLE RELIEF IN THE OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN THE NEED FOR
EXTENDED HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS IN THE PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ALREADY SEEN THE PRESENT UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH START TO SHIFT MORE SOUTH, WHICH IS LIKELY TO SEE THE
HEAT CONTINUE BE A PROBLEM FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER, THIS SHIFT COULD
PROVIDE THE PANHANDLES WITH OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE SOME STORMS AS
MOST MODELS SEE A DISTURBANCE ALONGSIDE A DECENT POCKET OF
MOISTURE PUSH IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT CAMS RUNS HAVE
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEEING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, MULTIPLE CAMS HAVE ALSO SEEN THIS ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY, COULD RESULT IN SOME EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS OUR EAST ONCE
AGAIN. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS PRESENT CAMS HAVE
SEEN BOTH CAPE VALUES AND WIND SHEAR A BIT LACKING, BUT THE
PRESENT SET UP CAN’T BE COMPLETELY OVERLOOKED AS IT GENERALLY
FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROUGE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
OVERNIGHT HEAT BURST RELATED WINDS GUSTS. ADDED TO THIS WILL BE
SOME DECENT PWAT VALUES THAT COULD RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES AT
ITS PEAK, WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR EVEN A WEAK SHOWER TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING. REGARDLESS,
HEAT IS STILL GOING TO TAKE PRECEDENCE FOR THE DAY AS MANY
LOCATIONS COULD BE REACHING TRIPLE HEAT FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE
DAY, WITH AREAS IN THE SOUTH STARTING TO GET CLOSE TO THE 110
DEGREE MARK THANKS TO A LITTLE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWN-SLOPE WINDS.
EVEN WORSE THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY
THE HEAT WITH MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS ACTUALLY FEELING HOTTER THAN
ACTUALLY ARE. GIVEN THIS, WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE PRESENT
HEAT ADVISORY TO COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES.
AS FOR FRIDAY, PRESENT CAMS HAVE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A STALLED
BOUNDARY FROM TODAY’S EXPECTED ACTIVITY SETTING UP SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY COULD
AID IN A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF LINGERING MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT. AS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS, LATEST CAMS HAVE
BEEN SEEING DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG PRESENT. ON THE WIND SHEAR
SIDE, MOST CAMS ARE STILL NOT SEEING GREAT VALUES BUT SOME POCKETS
OF 20 TO NEAR 30 KT DO EXIST AT TIMES. WITH THESE TWO INGREDIENTS
PRESENT IT WOULD PUT LARGER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN FOR THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES CAN
REACH THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT VALUES SOME MODELS ARE CALLING FOR.
REGARDLESS, ALL THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY IS GOING TO HAVE TO RELY
ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS, WHICH SEEM TO BE PUSHING FURTHER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. OTHERWISE, CONCERNS ARE STILL
PRESENT FOR THE HEAT FRIDAY AS MUCH OF THE MODELS STILL SEE THE
PANHANDLES PUSHING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE-DIGIT. HOWEVER, THESE
CONCERNS MAY BE MINIMIZED SHOULD WE ACTUALLY SEE STORMS DEVELOP
EARLY ENOUGH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM OUR MORE ACTIVE END OF THE WORK WEEK MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS PRESENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, HEAT
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN TALKING POINT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
MODEL AGREEMENT DOES NOT SEE THE THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDING OVER THE PANHANDLES LAYING OFF ANYTIME SOON. WITH THIS
HIGH-PRESSURE IN PLACE, THE PANHANDLES WILL HOLD ONTO A MORE
STAGNATE AND DRY UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THAT WILL AID IN FORCING
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK CLEAR INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT. OBVIOUSLY SUCH HOT TEMPERATURES OVER MULTIPLE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS RATHER TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER,
WHAT COULD MAKE THIS MUCH MORE DANGEROUS IS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FAIRING MUCH BETTER WITH PRESENT EXPECTATIONS SEEING
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS AMARILLO, HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EITHER BREAK OR
TIE THEIR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE EACH NIGHT. EXPECTATIONS
LIKE THESE WOULD ALSO MEAN THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE RELIEF
OCCURRING DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH MAY ONLY AMPLIFY THE RISK
OF SEEING HEAT RELATED ILLNESS AS EACH DAY PASSES. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL, IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL NOT
ONLY SEE HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS FORM MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT ALSO
HAVE SAID PRODUCTS LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
STAY AROUND 10-15 KTS TONIGHT, STRENGTHENING TO 10-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ001>015-017>020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52
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