823
FXUS64 KAMA 240604
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
104 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES WITH ALL HAZARDS NOT FULLY
RULED OUT.
- EXTREME AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT TO CONTINUE WITH NEAR TO OVER
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF JULY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN WITH THE EXIT OF
THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS SHORT-WAVE MOST
CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FINAL PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
ANY ACTIVITY TODAY AS IT WILL BE OUR PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANIZE.
IN TERMS OF ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR TODAY, MANY CAMS CONTINUE
TO SEE ALMOST TROPICAL LIKE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FUNNEL INTO THE
PANHANDLES WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO NEARING 2 INCHES
AS YOU PUSH FURTHER EAST. WITH VALUES LIKE THAT AVAILABLE, IT
WOULD VERY EASY FOR ANY SHOWER TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING RAINFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES PER HOUR. ADDED TO THIS IS THE PRESENCE OF DECENT
MLCAPE VALUES AND WIND SHEAR WITH MOST CAMS AVERAGING AROUND 2000
TO 3000 J/KG AND UPWARDS OF 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THESE
VALUES ALONGSIDE THE POTENTIAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVE MADE IT
SO ALL HAZARDS CAN’T BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, FLOODING IS POSED TO
TAKE THE MAIN STAGE TODAY THANKS TO THESE EXTREME MOISTURE VALUES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THERE TO BE WEAK STORM MOTION THANKS TO THE
STILL PRESENT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH AND STALLED BOUNDARY. NOW THERE ARE
STILL SOME FAILURE MODES TO THIS ACTIVITY, WITH THE PRIMARY BEING
THE BOUNDARY MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THAN PRESENT MODELS EXPECT.
THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY FORCE THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE THAT IS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE ACTIVITY
WOULD BE MUCH HARDER TO LIFT NO MATTER HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT. OTHERWISE, HEAT DOES CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCATIONS STILL TRYING TO FORCE THEMSELVES
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. IN OUR EAST THIS HEAT AND EXPECTED
MOISTURE CAN LEAD TO AREAS FEELING HOTTER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS WITH
MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MOVING INTO SATURDAY DOES SEE THIS BOUNDARY MOVE OFF THE
PANHANDLES, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIME TO
TAKE OVER ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, LINGER MOISTURE
FROM TODAY MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ONCE WE HAVE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
THAT AFTERNOON. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, THE HOLDING OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER
DAY OF TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT. THIS HEAT COULD BE A BIT MORE POTENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LESSER COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD RESULT
IN MORE AREAS NEEDING HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN TALKING POINT FOR THE EXTENDED LONG-
TERM PERIOD AS MODEL AGREEMENT DOES NOT SEE THE THE UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLES LAYING OFF ANYTIME SOON. WITH
THIS HIGH-PRESSURE IN PLACE, THE PANHANDLES WILL HOLD ONTO A MORE
STAGNATE AND DRY UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THAT WILL AID IN FORCING
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK THROUGH THE END OF
JULY. OBVIOUSLY SUCH HOT TEMPERATURES OVER MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS RATHER TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, WHAT COULD
MAKE THIS MUCH MORE DANGEROUS IS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
FAIRING MUCH BETTER WITH PRESENT EXPECTATIONS SEEING LOCATIONS,
SUCH AS AMARILLO AND DALHART, HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EITHER BREAK
OR TIE THEIR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE EACH NIGHT. EXPECTATIONS
LIKE THESE WOULD ALSO MEAN THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE RELIEF
OCCURRING DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH MAY ONLY AMPLIFY THE RISK
OF SEEING HEAT RELATED ILLNESS AS EACH DAY PASSES. ONE THING THAT
MAY BE OUR SAVING GRACE OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, IS
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
ANY SHIFT IN SAID HIGH COULD LEAD TO MOISTURE PUSHING IN AND
CREATING CLOUD COVER OR ISOLATED STORMS THAT CAN PROVIDE A BIT OF
RELIEF TO THE PANHANDLES. A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE HAVE EVEN
SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL OF SOME NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT COULD
FORCE STORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN RANGE STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY FOR ACTIVITY, IT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE EXPECTED HEAT WILL PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING HEAT RELATED
PRODUCTS BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY THE DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF SCT STORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH DHT AND GUY HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR BEING IMPACTED. A BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AMA
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. INCLUDED
PROB30S ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ005-010-014-015-018>020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...88
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