052
FXUS64 KAMA 250620
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
120 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
HOT TO EXTREME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS
WILL EASILY EXCEED 105 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS, AND A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS MAY ALSO REACH 110 ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED ACTUAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES UP TO 109 DEGREES
TODAY.
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TODAY. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
TODAY, RECENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES
ONCE MORE. A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD STAY
IN THE UPPER 90S DUE TO RECENT RAINS, BUT HIGH PRESSURE, WARM
MORNING LOWS, AND DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EVEN IN LOCATIONS WITH HIGH MOISTURE.
LOCATIONS THAT CAN HOLD ONTO 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY
ALSO BE SUBJECT TO HEAT INDEX VALUES HOTTER THAN THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES WHERE HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MEET OR EXCEED 105
DEGREES. HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES MAY REACH UP TO 109 IN THESE AREAS
AS WELL.
HIGH THEATA-E PROFILES OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHOUT A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM, STORMS SHOULD BE QUITE
ISOLATED TODAY AND FORM ONCE THEY REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
LIKE PREVIOUS FORECASTS, STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 60 WITHIN OUR
FA.
TOMORROW, VERY HOT HIGHS CONTINUE AREAWIDE. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE +105 DEGREE TEMPERATURES
CAN EXPAND, BUT ANOTHER HEAT PRODUCT IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST SOME
PARTS OF OUR CWA; MOST LIKELY THE NORTH AND EAST. WITH UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO CENTER MORE OVERHEAD OF THE HIGH
PLAINS, THE MOISTURE AXIS IS ALSO FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWEST.
THIS LEAVES THE PANHANDLES UNDER DRIER CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO REMAIN ABSENT ON SUNDAY.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-TIME HEAT CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED AS WE
WRAP UP JULY. H500 HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG OVERHEAD, BUT
MODELS SHOW HINTS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST. IN THE
MEANTIME, HOT TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK, WITH NBM HIGHS REACHING 110 IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS. POPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW DURING THE WEEK DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND OUR MODEST MOISTURE PROFILES. AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION, IF ANY, WILL BE OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY HAVE THE
APPROPRIATE STEERING FLOW TO MOVE INTO THAT AREA.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE CHANCES THAT THESE WILL IMPACT ANY
TERMINAL ARE TO LOW TO BE REFLECTED IN ANY OF THE TAFS. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY HOT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH ALL TERMINALS
HAVING INCREASED DENSITY ALTITUDES.
98
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ003>005-008>010-015-020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...98
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