933
FXUS64 KAMA 251739
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- ISOLATED (10-20%) STORM CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES.
- EXTREME HEAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A PLUME OF POSITIVE H700 THETAE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STRONG LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE ABSENT UNDER THE
CURRENT HIGH-PRESSURE REGIME, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE REACHED. WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED OVERLAP
WITH POSITIVE H700 THETAE ADVECTION IS WHERE UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY
SURVIVE AND PRODUCE THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT TRENDS SHOW
THIS AXIS OF INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG HWY 60, PUSHING NORTH INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EVENING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE PANHANDLES
TOMORROW, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL STIFLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND FURTHER INCREASE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. SUBSIDENCE WILL COVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLES,
EXCLUDING THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS STILL
SLIGHTLY FAVORED. ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
PANHANDLES DRY ON SUNDAY, HIGH-TERRAIN INITIATED STORMS FROM NM
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES ON MONDAY
EVENING.
FERGUSON
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED TRIPLE-DIGIT
MAXIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURES, MID- TO HIGH-70 DEGREE LOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CONTINUATION OF HEAT PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE FURTHER WEST, PLACING THE PANHANDLES IN UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER IN THE PANHANDLES, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST, AS LEE-SIDE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO,
AND TIMING WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WORK WEEK.
FERGUSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
RELATIVELY CALM WINDS FROM 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE S DURING THE DAY,
TURNING SW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ003>005-008>010-
015-020.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page