293
FXUS64 KAMA 252337
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- ISOLATED (10-20%) STORM CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES.
- EXTREME HEAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A PLUME OF POSITIVE H700 THETAE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STRONG LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE ABSENT UNDER THE
CURRENT HIGH-PRESSURE REGIME, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE REACHED. WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED OVERLAP
WITH POSITIVE H700 THETAE ADVECTION IS WHERE UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY
SURVIVE AND PRODUCE THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT TRENDS SHOW
THIS AXIS OF INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG HWY 60, PUSHING NORTH INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EVENING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS OVER THE PANHANDLES
TOMORROW, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL STIFLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AND FURTHER INCREASE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. SUBSIDENCE WILL COVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLES,
EXCLUDING THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS STILL
SLIGHTLY FAVORED. ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
PANHANDLES DRY ON SUNDAY, HIGH-TERRAIN INITIATED STORMS FROM NM
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES ON MONDAY
EVENING.
FERGUSON
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED TRIPLE-DIGIT
MAXIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURES, MID- TO HIGH-70 DEGREE LOW OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, AND THE CONTINUATION OF HEAT PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS BEGIN TO SHIFT THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE FURTHER WEST, PLACING THE PANHANDLES IN UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE
WEATHER IN THE PANHANDLES, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST, AS LEE-SIDE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE PANHANDLES
DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO,
AND TIMING WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WORK WEEK.
FERGUSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR THE NEXT HOUR, VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER DALHART
AND COULD BE WITHIN 5 SM OF THE TERMINAL. THESE SHOWERS HAVE A LOW
CHANCE OF BECOMING THUNDERSTORMS, SO IMPACTS TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED. MENTIONS OF -SHRA WERE MADE SINCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR OVER OR IN THE VICINITY OF KDHT.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
FOR ALL SITES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT MAY APPROACH 12 KTS AT
TIMES, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY LIGHT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME FROM THEN TILL THE
END OF THE 00Z PERIOD.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ003>005-008>010-317.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ015-020.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...55
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