745
FXUS64 KAMA 270207
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
907 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- EXTREME HEAT IN THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES TODAY.
- LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-30%) RETURN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
RECENT RAINFALL IN BEAVER COUNTY IS INCREASING DEWPOINTS ABOVE
CURRENT GUIDANCE. THIS IS IN TURN INCREASING HEAT INDICES, WHICH
LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE COUNTY.
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS ATTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND LIKELY
LEAD TO A CWA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY. DEWPOINTS ARE STEADILY DECLINING
IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT, WHICH WILL KEEP
HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AMBIENT TEMPERATURES, BUT
STILL AT ADVISORY LEVELS. MONDAY BEGINS THE TREND FOR DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, AS
TERRAIN INDUCED STORMS FROM NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO TRY TO MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO THE PANHANDLE'S. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY MORNING, MAKING IT POSSIBLY AS
FAR SOUTH AS I-40. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE
TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN POSSIBLE BRINGING THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY BELOW TRIPLE-DIGITS.
FERGUSON
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE SLOW WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BENEFITS WILL BE LIMITED AS UPPER-
90'S TO TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED, AND THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES ARE THE ONLY AREA EXPECTED TO SEE DECENT OVERNIGHT LOW
RECOVERIES. WITH THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE HEAT, THE AREA WILL
NEED TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT IN THE PATTERN FOR HEAT RISK TO
DECREASE.
SOME LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLES AS EARLY AS THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WOULD INCREASE POP CHANCES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES. THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN HAPPENING NEAR THE END OF THE LONG-
TERM. BUT, THIS COULD BRING PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE SLIGHT RELIEF,
EVEN IF JUST IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE.
FERGUSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-15
KTS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 904 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES. WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. MIGHT
BE SOME LLWS AT KGUY FROM 9Z-15Z OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND
40KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO SOME SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR
THE TAF PERIOD.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ001-002-006-
007-011>013-016>018.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ003>005-008>010-014-
015-019-020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ001.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...89
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