565
FXUS64 KAMA 271045
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
545 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST COMBINED PANHANDLES
AND THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY. DANGEROUS HEAT IS
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 111 DEGREES LIKELY.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-30%) REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COMBINED
PANHANDLES AND THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE, ALONGSIDE PALO DURO
CANYON. BASED OFF BIASED CORRECTED MODELS; 00Z CAMS; AND THE 01Z
NBM; TEMPERATURES SHOULD MEET OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS AREAS UNDER THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING. TEMPERATURES ARE MORE BORDERLINE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE, BUT THEY ARE ALREADY EXPECTED TO REACH
108 BASED OFF AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. 00Z HREF AND REFS PROBS STILL
SHOW CHANCES AS HIGH AS 40% TO REACH 110 ACROSS THOSE COUNTIES.
THIS IS LARGELY THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY, BUT THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS ALSO BEING DRIVEN BY THE
IMPACTS OF OUR CONSECUTIVE >105 DEGREE DAYS AND EXTREME (4/4) TO
MAJOR (3/4) HEAT RISK IN THOSE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, CHANCES ARE
LOWER TO REACH 110 DEGREES. HOWEVER, MOST SHORT TERM MODELS
DISPLAY 850 TEMPERATURES AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT SUPPORT
>=105 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.
A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND COINCIDING SHORTWAVE ARE
EXPECTED TO EJECT EASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FORMING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE SOME FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. THE
MAIN TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED TO BE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CAPE AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK IN OUR
AREA TODAY, SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES ONCE THEY FORM. STILL, WITH THE PASSING OF THE SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT, SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.
TUESDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE THE SAME BROAD EXTREME HEAT
HEADLINES AS TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH
110 TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THESE CASES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED. MOST HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE MID 100S, WHILE THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 100S THANKS TO POTENTIAL MORNING
CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. HEAT PRODUCTS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THEY ARE NEEDED
FOR THE ENTIRE FA.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
STILL COMPRISE OF A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH FAVORABLE RAIN CHANCES CONFINED LARGELY IN THE NORTHWEST
COMBINED PANHANDLES.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE STEADILY SHIFTS WEST AND HEIGHTS DECREASE,
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RETROGRADE FROM MID 100S TO LOWER 100S AND
EVENTUALLY UPPER 90S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID, SOME LOCAL
HOT SPOTS IN OUR CWA WILL ARE STILL EXPECTED TO HOLD ONTO TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOCATIONS LIKE PALO DURO
CANYON, BOYS RANCH, AND BORGER (TOWNS NEAR THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY) HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO ACHIEVE HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN
100 DEGREES FOR MORE THAN 15 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS WEEK DUE TO OUR NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE POPS EXPAND FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES OR
OUTFLOW, ALONGSIDE MINIMAL INHIBITION, TO REGENERATE CONVECTION
FURTHER INTO OUR CWA.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON TO EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES. THE CHANCES OF THESE
IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO BE REFLECTED IN ANY TAF.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY HOT WHICH IS CAUSING INCREASED DENSITY
ALTITUDE AT ALL TERMINALS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001-006-
011>020.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ002>005-
007>010-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...98
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