997
FXUS64 KAMA 290541
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD 100S, BUT
A GRADUAL DECREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
90S BEING MORE COMMON.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH AND WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, WE BEGIN THE EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE
REMNANTS OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES, AND
POTENTIAL FOR NEW ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY (10-20% CHANCE). ONCE ALL
ACTIVITY BURNS OFF, THE PANHANDLES WILL BE LEFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DAY OF SWELTERING HEAT THANKS TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY
PLANTED ATOP THE REGION. OUR 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES IN AMA IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH IT IS
CERTAINLY NOT WELCOMED). AS A RESULT, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES
WHERE TEMPERATURES AND/OR HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105 ARE LIKELY.
THURSDAY WILL BE JUST AS HOT IF NOT SLIGHTLY HOTTER, WITH EVEN
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT PRODUCTS LIKELY BEING NEEDED. RECORD HIGHS
COULD OCCUR AS WE SHOULD REACH DAY 9 OF CONSECUTIVE TRIPLE DIGITS.
HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, WITH A SWATH OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CO & NM INTO THE
PANHANDLES. IF MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE PANS OUT, STORM COVERAGE FOR
THESE ROUNDS COULD BE THE HIGHEST OF THE WEEK. EVEN THEN, IT WOULD
STILL BE RELATIVELY HIT OR MISS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION, WITH PWATS WELL OVER 1.0-1.5", WEAK TO
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE), AND DECENT DCAPE VALUES
(1000-1500 J/KG). WHILE SEVERE STORMS AREN'T LIKELY WITH THESE
INGREDIENTS, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE
ACHIEVABLE, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PANHANDLES
WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST (20-50% RAIN CHANCES).
HARREL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
FRIDAY'S WEATHER CONTINUES THE TREND OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT, ALONG
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN TO OUR WEST.
HOWEVER, MANY MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE WEEK, ALLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO PROVIDE A VERY
MINOR (BUT VERY WELCOMED) REDUCTION IN HEAT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MEANING HIGH PROBABILITIES (>70%) FOR TEMPS TO STAY AT OR JUST
BELOW 100 BOTH DAYS. THIS MAY ALSO HELP SPARK STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVNEING (20-40%
POPS), WHILE THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES ARE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN
AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
LOOKING TO THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST, GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER
LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT FIRST GLANCE THIS WON'T CHANGE OUR WEATHER ALL
THAT MUCH, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STILL HIGHLY FAVORED EACH
DAY. THIS PATTERN DOES HOWEVER PROVIDE SOME HOPE FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO BRING SUBTLE DISTURBANCES THAT COULD KICK OFF RAIN
OPPORTUNITIES. TRENDS FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS
AVERAGE PRECIP FORECASTS SLIGHTLY HINT THAT WE COULD MAINTAIN
OCCASIONAL STORM CHANCES, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE OVERALL STILL
QUITE LOW. WITH NO WIDESPREAD GULLYWASHERS IN SIGHT, DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL UNFORTUNATELY PERSIST UNLESS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE CAN OCCUR.
HARREL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SPARKED SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES, PRIMARILY AFFECTING KGUY TO START THE
06Z PERIOD. ADDITIONAL POP-UPS COULD OCCUR NEAR KDHT, SO VCTS
MENTIONS ARE BEING MAINTAINED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CAUSING
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST, WITH GUSTS
MAINLY IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE SETTLING OUT OF THE
SOUTH UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND OF STORM POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ004-005-008>010-014-015-019-020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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