630
FXUS64 KAMA 122330
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
- HOT AND DRY TODAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.
- THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY, WITH WIND AND DRY LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS AS
THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS ITS PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MUCH ASSISTANCE IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES, ONLY REACHING THE MID- TO UPPER-70'S.
THURSDAY, WE SEE THE RETURN OF SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. A DIFFUSE
MOISTURE BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES,
WHICH IS ACTING AS THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS TOMORROW. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS POSE THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS, WITH DCAPE
RANGING FROM 1500-1700 J/KG AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WHILE
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE CALLED INTO QUESTION WITH
RECENT CAM RUNS DUE TO DRY AIR, H700 THETAE SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE
SOUTHEAST/EAST AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING
STORM INITIALIZATION. WITH LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE
AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RESTRICTED TO
THE CORES OF ANY STORMS. THIS RAISES CONCERNS ABOUT LIGHTNING
INDUCED FIRE STARTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH ANY CG
STRIKES AWAY FROM PRECIPITATION CORES. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL NOT ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW,
ANY GUSTS STEMMING FROM CONVECTION/OUTFLOW COULD SPREAD LIGHTNING
INDUCED FIRES QUICKLY AND ERRATICALLY. THERE ARE ALSO POP CHANCES
(20-30%) ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES TOMORROW DUE TO TERRAIN INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS
PROGRESSING ENE FROM NM. DCAPE IS LOWER IN THIS ENVIRONMENT (~1300
J/KG), SO THE WIND THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT NOT OFF THE
TABLE. THE REAL QUESTION IN THIS AREA IS FORCING AND STORM COVERAGE,
AS CAM'S HAVE THE BEST DEVELOPMENT NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE
PANHANDLES.
FERGUSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
BEGINNING FRIDAY, WE SEE THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THE SOUTHEAST US. THE ANTICYCLONIC
ROTATION WILL CIRCULATE DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES, STIFLING POP CHANCES. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH (PVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE) WILL ESTABLISH A
PATTERN OF INCREASED POP CHANCES IN THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION OF
INTENSITY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE, AS LONG-RANGE MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE
SPATIAL RESOLUTION TO CLARIFY THIS YET. HOWEVER, A PERSISTENT SIGNAL
OF POP CHANCES HAVE BEEN IN THIS AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WHICH IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT WINDOW.
PAST THE WEEKEND POP CHANCES, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN DUE TO THE RETROGRADING OF THE UPPER-KLLEVEL HIGH BACK TO THE
WEST AND OVER THE PANHANDLES. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL US, WHICH COULD IN
TURN PULL THE JET CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT THIS SIGNAL IS
TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE.
FERGUSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AT TIMES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>020.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ004-005-009-010-014-015-018>020.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...29
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