270
FXUS64 KAMA 132350
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE EASTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES TODAY, AS LIGHTNING STARTS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS OVER DRY FUELS CREATE A DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PANHANDLES. SEVERE RISK IS CURRENTLY LOW, WITH STRONG
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES, AS WELL AS
PALO DURO CANYON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
CONCERNS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL
COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES. AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED, AND A DIFFUSE MOISTURE BOUNDARY SETS UP
OVER THE PANHANDLES, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS IS STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES OF 1500-1700 J/KG, ~2000 J/KG SBCAPE,
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES ARE > 1 INCH
ACROSS THE EAST, A LACKING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INVERTED-V FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
CORES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES OFF OF THE PERIPHERY
OF THUNDERSTORM BASES WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO INDUCE FIRES. ANY
FIRES STARTED BY LIGHTNING WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH, WHICH COULD INTENSIFY FIRES AND CAUSE THEM TO
MOVE QUICKLY AND ERRATICALLY. THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN STORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, AS CAMS HAVE TRENDED DOWN IN THIS REGARD.
SMALL STORM CLUSTERS DUE TO THE DRY NATURE OF THE ENVIRONMENT AS
WELL AS SPATIAL RESOLUTION LIMITATIONS ARE LIKELY LEADING TO THIS
DOWNTREND.
POP CHANCES ON FRIDAY FAVOR THE NORTH (NORTHERN TEXAS AND ENTIRE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE). REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, CO-LOCATED WITH A SWATH OF MOISTURE
COULD INITIATE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COMBINED PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, GENERAL SE TO E FLOW INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN CO AND NM WILL ALSO INITIATE STORMS TOMORROW. EASTERLY
STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THESE FRONTRANGE STORMS INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA LATER IN THE EVENING, WHERE STRONGER CORE COULD POSE A RISK OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE 850 MB JET IS DISPLACED FROM THESE STORMS TO
THE EAST, SO IF THEY ARE ABLE TO SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
PROPAGATE EASTERLY TO CATCH THE JET AS IT RAMPS UP, THIS COULD ALLOW
STORMS TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.
FERGUSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
FRONTRANGE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE STORY OF THE
WEEKEND. WHETHER STEERING FLOW WILL BRING THESE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
OUR CWA REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER, IF
THESE STORMS ARE TOP MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES, STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE AN IMPACT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
WITH THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, THE STORY LARGELY REMAINS THE SAME AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES BACK WEST, PLACING THE PANHANDLES IN
ANOTHER HIGH-PRESSURE REGIME WITH HOT DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH, THE FLOW DOES FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
US, WITH CONSISTENT W FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AS WE HEAD INTO MID-NEXT
WEEK. LEE SIDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS COULD BRING SOME WEATHER TO
THE OK AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES MID-NEXT WEEK IF THIS PATTERN
HOLDS.
FERGUSON
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NEAR AND THROUGH THE AMA AREA AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DHT AND GUY SITES FOR
ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THOSE LOCATIONS IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE
CONVECTION BEGINS TO FALL APART THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS MORNING AT ALL LOCATIONS HOWEVER A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH DHT AND GUY AREAS NEAR SUNRISE
FRIDAY SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. BY MID TO LATE
AFTN FRIDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AND WINDS AT ALL TAF
SITES WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE.
AFTN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW OVER NORTHERN TX AND
THE OK PANHANDLE AREAS.
KP
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ004-005-008>010-
014-015-019-020-317.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ004-005-009-
010-014-015-018>020.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ003.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...KP
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