151
FXUS64 KAMA 141126
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND PALO
DURO CANYON ON FRIDAY FOR VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
THE MAIN H800-300 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO FUNNEL IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF AMERICA INTO THE PANHANDLES REGION. MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ON
SAID PERIPHERY REGION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERN
AND NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBS (20-35%)
OF SEEING RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MOST ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS, DCAPE OF 1500-1800 J/KG IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH WITH RATHER ANEMIC WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE GUST TOPPING OUT 60-70 MPH, SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE OBSERVED WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY IN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES. ALSO ONE TO WATCH, WITH PWAT VALUES TOMORROW
FROM THE LATEST SOUNDINGS IN THE 75TH-99TH PERCENTILE VS. AUGUST
CLIMO VALUES, ANY TRAINING AND/OR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE A VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, BUT CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
OCCURRING REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE FOR PALO DURO
CANYON, ALONG WITH THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLE, HI-RES PROBS OF
105+ FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL EXCEED 50% FOR THESE AREAS,
WHERE UL SUBSIDENCE IS MOST PRESENT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL
COMPARED TO OTHER AREAS IN THE PANHANDLES. OVERALL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 95-106.
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY SUBSIDE AS WE GO
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MAIN MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC SYSTEM SHOULD STEER THE MORE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES
FOR TOMORROW. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES VS.
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S TO 100-102.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON WHERE
THE MAIN H500 HIGH FEATURE WILL RE-CENTER EACH DAY, RANGING FROM
WEST TEXAS INTO THE SE CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL CHANGE
THE MOISTURE AXIS FOR BEST DAILY RAIN CHANCES. CURRENTLY FAVORS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE A
POTENTIAL DRYING PATTERN RETURNS MID WEEK FOR MOST AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
BREEZY WINDS AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WESTERN PANHANDLES, BUT WILL BE VERY SMALL
AND SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING
MENTIONS FOR ANY TAF SITE AT THIS TIME. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE
ROGUE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WATCHING A
BOUNDARY TO CAUSE A WIND SHIFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ004-005-008>010-
014-015-019-020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38
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