952
FXUS64 KAMA 141801
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
101 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND PALO
DURO CANYON TODAY FOR VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
SOME STORMS.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS RAINFALL DEFICITS
INCREASE ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION TODAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE MONSOON/SUBTROPIC MOISTURE PLUME
THAT HELPED PRODUCE STORMS IN THE AREA YESTERDAY REMAINS OVER THE
AREA TODAY, PERHAPS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST BASED ON MODEL H7
THETA-E. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO BEING SAMPLED NEAR
CLAYTON TO BEAVER, AND THIS MAY BE A CATALYST FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON (IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST). MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1500 J/KG ALONG WITH DCAPE RANGING FROM 1400 TO 1800 J/KG WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SINGLE CELL TO MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 TO 70 MPH. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK DUE TO
WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL PROFILE, SO STORM ORGANIZATION
WILL BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY SHORT-LIVED PULSE ACTIVITY. A REPEAT OF
TODAY'S FORECAST CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, EXCEPT
CONFINED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY
MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST DUE TO MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE CLIPPING THAT AREA. PWATS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE ALONG
WITH SLOW STORM MOTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ONE MORE DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY: MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE CENTURY MARK, WITH THE CENTRAL
AND EAST APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PALO DURO CANYON
AND THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURE SHOULD COME DOWN
SOME TOMORROW AND SUNDAY, WITH 90S BEING MORE COMMON.
UNFORTUNATELY THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS KEPT MOST
LOCATIONS IN OUR AREA VERY DRY OVER THE SUMMER. PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ONLY AROUND 25% TO 50% OVER THE LAST 90 DAYS,
WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THESE MONTHS TYPICALLY DRIVE OUR
YEARLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS. EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IF WIDESPREAD RAINS CONTINUE TO AVOID THE
AREA. IF THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE, IT WILL HAVE TO BE FROM THE
EL NINO PROSPECTS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FALL AND
WINTER.
WARD
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A RETROGRADING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, SHIFTING THE MAIN H5 HIGH
OVER TEXAS BY MONDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS NEW MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A REBOUND FROM OUR SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND TO MORE TRIPLE DIGIT NUMBERS
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. STORM CHANCES WILL ALSO DECREASE FOR AT
LEAST FOR A DAY OR TWO AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BUT AT LEAST LOW END CHANCES SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO
LATE WEEK AS THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENSUES.
WARD
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY MAINLY
FAVORING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (KDHT AND KGUY), ALTHOUGH CAN'T
RULE OUT STORM ACTIVITY AT KAMA. THESE PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG 45 TO 55 KNOT WIND GUSTS NEAR THE CORES ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. BRIEF WIND SHIFTS DUE TO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED, AND NOT CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO PREVAIL.
WARD
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ004-005-008>010-
014-015-019-020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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